Cocoa Historical Replay: 2021-11 to 2022-05
Replay 124 trading days of cocoa from 2021-11-16 to 2022-05-13, capturing a 12.7% drawdown amid inflation-driven volatility. Step through daily bars, tackle 21 decision points including 7 critical ones, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
124 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2021-11 to 2022-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 178 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 12.7% and a 20.4% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −12.7%
- Max run-up
- +20.4%
- Duration
- 178 days
- Largest single-day move
- +5.1%
- Bars
- 124 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The scenario places traders in the cocoa market during a period of mounting inflation concerns in late 2021 and early 2022. This was a time when commodity prices were responding aggressively to supply chain disruptions and monetary policy shifts. The replay spans 124 trading days from 2021-11-16 to 2022-05-13, covering the 2020s decade context. Participants face the challenge of navigating a soft commodity market where inflationary pressures created unpredictable volatility, forcing them to make decisions under uncertainty about central bank responses and global demand shifts.
Cocoa prices opened the replay period at 2505 and closed at 2483, representing a modest -0.9% net decline over the full span. However, this seemingly flat outcome obscures significant turbulence—a maximum drawdown of 12.7% tested positions severely at various points. The largest single-bar move of 5.1% demonstrates how quickly sentiment could shift, creating both sharp losses and potential opportunities within the same trajectory. Participants encountered 21 decision points across this period, with 7 designated as critical junctures where directional conviction was most crucial.
This replay teaches that headline returns can be deeply misleading when volatility is substantial. Surviving a 12.7% drawdown requires disciplined position sizing and emotional control, not merely correct directional calls. The 21 decision points sharpen judgment about when conviction justifies risk and when uncertainty demands restraint. Process discipline and psychological resilience emerge as the true differentiators between educational exploration and actual trading performance.
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