The 2020s Archive
The pandemic crash, the inflation surge and the fastest tightening cycle in decades — volatility became the baseline again.
40 archive files
2025 · Commodities · US
2025 February–August: Tariff Escalation and the Commodity Drawdown — When Geopolitical Friction Flattened Net Returns
US commodities buckled under tariff escalation and geopolitical friction; 13 replays capture drawdowns of 10–36% with near-zero net returns.
Read the file →2025 · Forex · US
June–September 2025: The Dollar Softens, EM Currencies Catch a Breath
A 66-trading-day window when the US dollar reversed course, testing EM discipline across 36 currency pairs from ARS to ZMW.
Read the file →2025 · Forex · US
July–October 2025: Inflation Signals and a Dollar in Three Speeds
Three months of FX data reveal how diverging inflation expectations reshaped G10 and EM currency trajectories from mid-July through late October 2025.
Read the file →2025 · Stocks · US
Q4 2025–Q2 2026: A Global Equity Rally, Its Correction, and the Markets That Diverge
From October 2025, global equity markets entered a synchronized rally before correcting sharply in Q1 2026, with dramatic divergences across Gulf, Asian, and US indices.
Read the file →2024 · Forex · US
October 2024: The Dollar's Policy-Driven Surge — How One Political Inflection Reshaped 49 Currency Pairs
October 2024 triggered a dollar surge that rippled across 49 currency pairs in three months. From orderly CNY depreciation to disorderly RUB moves, the divergence tells the full story.
Read the file →2024 · Commodities · US
2024 Commodity Markets: The Fed's September Pivot and the Dollar Weakness That Divided 53 Scenarios
How the Federal Reserve's September 2024 rate cut split commodity markets — energy surges, agricultural boom, and industrial metals stagnation under a single policy shift.
Read the file →2024 · Commodities · BR
2024: Three Commodity Shocks and the Traders Who Rode Them
Precious metals shattered records, Brazil's drought reshaped soft commodities, and Middle East tensions roiled energy markets across 126 trading days of 2024.
Read the file →2024 · Forex · JP
2024 Spring: When Tokyo Drew the Line at 152 — Japan's Yen Defense in G10 Forex
Tokyo's spring 2024 stance at the 152 USD/JPY level shaped G10 crosses for three months. Seven currency pairs, 66 trading days of data, and a policy signal that market momentum ultimately overwhelmed.
Read the file →2024 · Forex · JP
June–September 2024: The G10 Yen Carry Unwind and Seven-Cross Synchronous Decline
JPY carry unwind: seven G10 crosses fell 3-9% in 68 trading days, USD/JPY -8.6% (Jun–Sep 2024)
Read the file →2024 · Commodities · US
November 2024: Trump's Election and the Policy-Driven Commodity Rout
Trump's November 2024 election win sent the dollar surging and commodities tumbling. Ferrous markets bore the brunt; the Coke replay tracked a 20.9% max drawdown.
Read the file →2024 · Commodities · US
November 2024: Tariff Shock and Dollar Surge Reshape the Entire US Commodity Complex
Policy headlines and USD volatility dominated 122 trading days from Nov 2024–May 2025, driving record drawdowns across 54 commodity scenarios.
Read the file →2024 · Stocks · US
2024 Consumer Disc SPDR: Riding the Sector Rotation Boom
An XLY boom replaying 150 trading days from June 2024 through January 2025, the Consumer Disc SPDR climbed 27.2% with a 12.7% drawdown and 11 decision points.
Read the file →2023 · Commodities · US
2023 February–May: Commodity Markets Caught in the SVB–Credit Suisse Storm
How commodity markets fractured when banking stress met industrial demand fears — 14 scenarios across metals, energy, and precious metals from February to May 2023.
Read the file →2023 · Forex · US
2023-05-09: EM Currency Storm — How Dollar Stratification Rewrote Risk Across 49 Pairs
US debt-ceiling brinkmanship May–Aug 2023 fragmented EM FX into distinct strata, from Nigeria's 66% naira collapse to Albania's measured 5.6% decline. Yen weakness followed.
Read the file →2023 · Commodities · US
November 2023–May 2024: Red Sea Tensions and the Global Commodity Boom
Geopolitical shock from Red Sea shipping disruptions drove extreme divergence across commodity markets, with cocoa soaring 150.7% and natural gas plunging 26.5% in six months of heightened volatility.
Read the file →2023 · Forex · US
2023 Spring: 66 Days That Shook Global Forex Through the SVB–Credit Suisse Crisis
From February 6 to May 7, 2023, the USD/CNY cross moved just 2.0% — yet 61 currency pairs endured extreme internal stress as the SVB and Credit Suisse crises reshaped global forex markets.
Read the file →2023 · Forex · US
March–July 2023: When SVB Shook the World — Currency Markets in the Banking Crisis
Silicon Valley Bank's March 2023 collapse triggered a global banking scare that rippled through 97 forex markets, from the Chinese yuan to the Turkish lira.
Read the file →2023 · Forex · US
November 2023: Red Sea Tensions Shook Global Forex — 79 Currency Pairs Under the Microscope
Geopolitical fault line meets currency markets: how Red Sea tensions from November 2023 reshaped 79 forex pairs across six months and 132 trading days.
Read the file →2022 · Forex · US
2022 Autumn: Three Forex Storms — Yen Intervention, UK Mini-Budget, Dollar Peak at 114
USD/JPY reversed after Japan's finance ministry intervened; GBP collapsed on the UK mini-budget crisis; DXY hit 114 in Q4 2022 — all within months.
Read the file →2022 · Forex · RU
2022 Early: Geopolitical War Shock and Global FX Repricing
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the ruble's 53% drawdown became the defining FX crisis — rippling through 87 emerging-market currencies from January through May.
Read the file →2022 · Commodities · RU
January–June 2022: The Russia-Ukraine War and the Commodity Rout
Geopolitical conflict shattered commodity markets in early 2022, sending energy and grain prices into historic volatility across 42 historical replay scenarios.
Read the file →2022 · Forex · EU
2022: The Euro's Parity Crisis — G10 Forex Under Geopolitical Stress
ECB's 2022 rate hike amid war-driven energy shocks sent the euro toward dollar parity across G10 pairs, with drawdowns reaching 8.6%.
Read the file →2021 · Forex · US
February 2021: Commodity Shock Rattles Forex Markets
Six forex pairs in early 2021 reveal how commodity price volatility reshaped currency valuations across emerging and G10 markets.
Read the file →2021 · Forex · US
November 24, 2021: The Fed's Hawkish Pivot and How Emerging Market Currencies Fractured
The Fed signaled tighter policy on Nov. 24, 2021, sending the dollar higher across 42 EM currency pairs over 64 trading days.
Read the file →2021 · Property · US
November 2021: The Rate Shock That Split America's Housing Market
Rate hikes collided with pandemic-era property gains, splitting US cities into outperformers and laggards across a 30-month housing cycle.
Read the file →2021 · Commodities · US
Autumn 2021: Beijing's Commodity Crackdown and the Policy-Shock Era
Sept–Dec 2021: Beijing's regulatory crackdown reshaped commodity markets, triggering outsized drawdowns across metals, energy, and agriculture.
Read the file →2021 · Commodities · US
Spring 2021: The Commodity Supercycle That Punished Discipline and Rewarded Conviction
When commodity prices surged in early 2021, the real test was not direction but survival through drawdowns that dwarfed the final returns.
Read the file →2021 · Commodities · US
2021 Q1: The Commodity Shock That Decoupled Headlines from Volatility
In early 2021, commodities across sectors surged as post-pandemic demand collided with supply disruptions, creating a shock that rewarded direction but punished discipline-free positioning.
Read the file →2021 · Commodities · CN
May–August 2021: China's Black Series Crackdown and the Great Commodity Divergence
Beijing's policy pivot crushed iron ore 31% while nat gas surged 32% — a 64-trading-day window where commodity markets bifurcated along regulatory fault lines.
Read the file →2021 · Property · US
February 2021: When Two Property Markets Began to Diverge
February 2021 marked a turning point as US pandemic housing booms and China's tightening crackdown set divergent 30-month trajectories through 2023.
Read the file →2021 · Property · US
June 2021: The Fed's U-Turn and the Housing Market's First Real Test
When monetary stimulus began unwinding in mid-2021, US residential property faced its first major stress test in years as the Federal Reserve signaled tighter policy ahead.
Read the file →2020 · Forex · US
November 17, 2020: The Dollar Begins Its Post-Pandemic Turn — A Cluster of 47 Forex Replays
The dollar opened at 104.541 on November 17, 2020. Over the next six months, it weakened against every one of 47 emerging and G10 currency pairs, but the journey was far from smooth.
Read the file →2020 · Commodities · US
January–June 2020: COVID-19 Reshapes Global Commodity Markets
Pandemic uncertainty sent commodity volatility to extremes—energy collapsed while metals and grains diverged, testing risk discipline across 86 trading days.
Read the file →2020 · Commodities · US
2020: The Commodity Pandemic — Crash, Rebound, and the Volatility That Fooled Most
2020 commodities swung from historic crash to explosive rebound. RBOB surged 86.8%, silver +83.7% — but drawdowns of 40%+ tested survival, not just direction.
Read the file →2020 · Commodities · US
2020 August–December: Commodity Markets Navigate Pandemic Volatility — A Cross-Section Analysis
84 trading days across 27 commodity markets exposed how pandemic uncertainty reshaped industrial and agricultural pricing dynamics differently, rewarding process over prediction.
Read the file →2020 · Property · US
October 2020: US Property Boom Begins, Eleven-City Housing Replay (2020–2023)
The US housing market entered an extraordinary boom in late 2020, driven by pandemic-era demand shifts. This replay traces the 2020-10 to 2023-03 window across 11 cities.
Read the file →2020 · Property · US
February 2020–August 2022: How Record-Low Rates and Remote Work Reshaped American Housing
US urban housing surged 2020–2022, powered by pandemic-era low rates and shifting demand. 22 city-level replays capture the boom's mechanics.
Read the file →2020 · Property · US
November 2020–April 2023: The U.S. Property Boom That Defied Every Prediction
How rock-bottom interest rates ignited the most sustained U.S. residential property surge in memory—and what cities diverged when the dust settled.
Read the file →2020 · Forex · US
Summer 2020: The Dollar Retreat and 101 Currency Markets
The mid-2020 global risk-asset rebound drove dollar weakness across 101 currency pairs, with drawdowns ranging from 0.2% to 10.1%.
Read the file →2020 · Forex · US
2020 Q4: The Dollar's Broad Retreat — 46 Currency Pairs in the Pandemic Era FX Shift
In late 2020 the US dollar weakened across 46 currency pairs over 84 trading days, as pandemic uncertainty met extraordinary monetary policy divergence.
Read the file →