2024 Archive Volume

The year in numbers

490

Replayable scenarios

This year's files

1. 01October 2024: The Dollar's Policy-Driven Surge — How One Political Inflection Reshaped 49 Currency Pairs

   October 2024 triggered a dollar surge that rippled across 49 currency pairs in three months. From orderly CNY depreciation to disorderly RUB moves, the divergence tells the full story.

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2. 022024 Commodity Markets: The Fed's September Pivot and the Dollar Weakness That Divided 53 Scenarios

   How the Federal Reserve's September 2024 rate cut split commodity markets — energy surges, agricultural boom, and industrial metals stagnation under a single policy shift.

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3. 032024: Three Commodity Shocks and the Traders Who Rode Them

   Precious metals shattered records, Brazil's drought reshaped soft commodities, and Middle East tensions roiled energy markets across 126 trading days of 2024.

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4. 042024 Spring: When Tokyo Drew the Line at 152 — Japan's Yen Defense in G10 Forex

   Tokyo's spring 2024 stance at the 152 USD/JPY level shaped G10 crosses for three months. Seven currency pairs, 66 trading days of data, and a policy signal that market momentum ultimately overwhelmed.

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5. 05June–September 2024: The G10 Yen Carry Unwind and Seven-Cross Synchronous Decline

   JPY carry unwind: seven G10 crosses fell 3-9% in 68 trading days, USD/JPY -8.6% (Jun–Sep 2024)

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6. 06November 2024: Trump's Election and the Policy-Driven Commodity Rout

   Trump's November 2024 election win sent the dollar surging and commodities tumbling. Ferrous markets bore the brunt; the Coke replay tracked a 20.9% max drawdown.

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7. 07November 2024: Tariff Shock and Dollar Surge Reshape the Entire US Commodity Complex

   Policy headlines and USD volatility dominated 122 trading days from Nov 2024–May 2025, driving record drawdowns across 54 commodity scenarios.

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8. 082024 Consumer Disc SPDR: Riding the Sector Rotation Boom

   An XLY boom replaying 150 trading days from June 2024 through January 2025, the Consumer Disc SPDR climbed 27.2% with a 12.7% drawdown and 11 decision points.

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