Coffee Historical Replay: 2020-11 to 2021-05
Arabica coffee climbed 25.3% from 116.2 to 145.65 between November 2020 and May 2021 amid the reflation trade. Step through 122 daily bars and 21 decision points with an AI coach reviewing your simulated commodity choices.
122 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2020-11 to 2021-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 177 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 12.6% and a 35.7% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −12.6%
- Max run-up
- +35.7%
- Duration
- 177 days
- Largest single-day move
- +6.9%
- Bars
- 122 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Arabica coffee futures found themselves at the center of the reflation trade narrative as 2020 drew to a close. With central banks flooding markets with liquidity and vaccine hopes igniting economic recovery bets, soft commodities became a battleground for inflation expectations. The 122-day window from November 2020 to May 2021 gave traders a concentrated laboratory to test their convictions against shifting macro currents.
The contract rose 25.3% from 116.2 to 145.65 during this span. Yet the journey was anything but a straight line—a 12.6% maximum drawdown tested any emerging bullish thesis, while a 6.9% single-bar move revealed how quickly sentiment could snap. Across 122 daily bars, 21 decision points were embedded, with 7 proving critical junctures where positioning diverged sharply.
This replay strips away hindsight to confront the messy reality of live judgment. Participants must navigate a market that ultimately climbed but stumbled repeatedly along the way, requiring them to manage risk without knowing the destination. The drawdown figure alone demands discipline: holding through losses is easy in theory, harder when capital is at stake and conviction wavers. The sharp single-bar moves test whether traders treat volatility as information or noise. For decision training, the lesson is clear: process matters more than outcome. Execution quality, risk sizing, and emotional regulation determine longevity in any market regime.