Orange Juice Historical Replay: 2020-11 to 2021-05
Replay 122 daily bars of orange juice from 2020-11-17 to 2021-05-13, watching price slide from 126.9 to 115 (-9.4%). Step into 21 decision points, master the tape, and receive an AI coach review in this simulated market-replay training.
122 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2020-11 to 2021-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 177 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 18.2% and a 11.9% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −18.2%
- Max run-up
- +11.9%
- Duration
- 177 days
- Largest single-day move
- −4.0%
- Bars
- 122 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The replay opens on 2020-11-17, placing traders inside a commodities market humming with post-pandemic optimism. The orange juice futures complex sat at 126.9, with the broader financial world fixated on reflation narratives and stimulus-driven demand recovery. Yet beneath the consensus bullishness, soft commodities face idiosyncratic pressures—crop weather, currency swings, consumer demand shifts—that can diverge sharply from macro themes. This 122-bar journey through the 2020s tests whether participants can read the tape independently rather than anchoring to prevailing market sentiment.
By 2021-05-13, the market had delivered a decisive verdict: orange juice settled at 115, a -9.4% decline that contradicted the reflation crowd. The path was anything but smooth, with a maximum drawdown of 18.2% punishing those who bought the dip and a largest single-bar move of 4.0% creating false breakouts. Across the replay, 21 decision points—7 deemed critical—demand continuous reassessment of directional conviction and risk exposure. The irony is sharp: the same macro tailwind that powered metals and energy actually weighed on this soft commodity.
The scenario sharpens decision training on three fronts. Process discipline matters when a crowded thesis unravels slowly; premature position-building against the prevailing narrative can bleed capital before the reversal confirms. Risk calibration proves essential—the 18.2% drawdown illustrates how a seemingly logical trade can become catastrophic without position sizing guardrails. Psychologically, the replay trains traders to separate signal from noise, resisting the temptation to average down into a losing position simply because the macro story feels supportive. Mastering this tape means accepting that even sound macro frameworks require humility when individual market dynamics assert themselves.