Commodities Archive
Energy, metals and agricultural replays where supply shocks dominate: weather, geopolitics and inventories move these markets in gaps, not drifts.
52 archive files
2025 · Commodities · US
2025 February–August: Tariff Escalation and the Commodity Drawdown — When Geopolitical Friction Flattened Net Returns
US commodities buckled under tariff escalation and geopolitical friction; 13 replays capture drawdowns of 10–36% with near-zero net returns.
Read the file →2024 · Commodities · US
2024 Commodity Markets: The Fed's September Pivot and the Dollar Weakness That Divided 53 Scenarios
How the Federal Reserve's September 2024 rate cut split commodity markets — energy surges, agricultural boom, and industrial metals stagnation under a single policy shift.
Read the file →2024 · Commodities · BR
2024: Three Commodity Shocks and the Traders Who Rode Them
Precious metals shattered records, Brazil's drought reshaped soft commodities, and Middle East tensions roiled energy markets across 126 trading days of 2024.
Read the file →2024 · Commodities · US
November 2024: Trump's Election and the Policy-Driven Commodity Rout
Trump's November 2024 election win sent the dollar surging and commodities tumbling. Ferrous markets bore the brunt; the Coke replay tracked a 20.9% max drawdown.
Read the file →2024 · Commodities · US
November 2024: Tariff Shock and Dollar Surge Reshape the Entire US Commodity Complex
Policy headlines and USD volatility dominated 122 trading days from Nov 2024–May 2025, driving record drawdowns across 54 commodity scenarios.
Read the file →2023 · Commodities · US
2023 February–May: Commodity Markets Caught in the SVB–Credit Suisse Storm
How commodity markets fractured when banking stress met industrial demand fears — 14 scenarios across metals, energy, and precious metals from February to May 2023.
Read the file →2023 · Commodities · US
November 2023–May 2024: Red Sea Tensions and the Global Commodity Boom
Geopolitical shock from Red Sea shipping disruptions drove extreme divergence across commodity markets, with cocoa soaring 150.7% and natural gas plunging 26.5% in six months of heightened volatility.
Read the file →2022 · Commodities · RU
January–June 2022: The Russia-Ukraine War and the Commodity Rout
Geopolitical conflict shattered commodity markets in early 2022, sending energy and grain prices into historic volatility across 42 historical replay scenarios.
Read the file →2021 · Commodities · US
Autumn 2021: Beijing's Commodity Crackdown and the Policy-Shock Era
Sept–Dec 2021: Beijing's regulatory crackdown reshaped commodity markets, triggering outsized drawdowns across metals, energy, and agriculture.
Read the file →2021 · Commodities · US
Spring 2021: The Commodity Supercycle That Punished Discipline and Rewarded Conviction
When commodity prices surged in early 2021, the real test was not direction but survival through drawdowns that dwarfed the final returns.
Read the file →2021 · Commodities · US
2021 Q1: The Commodity Shock That Decoupled Headlines from Volatility
In early 2021, commodities across sectors surged as post-pandemic demand collided with supply disruptions, creating a shock that rewarded direction but punished discipline-free positioning.
Read the file →2021 · Commodities · CN
May–August 2021: China's Black Series Crackdown and the Great Commodity Divergence
Beijing's policy pivot crushed iron ore 31% while nat gas surged 32% — a 64-trading-day window where commodity markets bifurcated along regulatory fault lines.
Read the file →2020 · Commodities · US
January–June 2020: COVID-19 Reshapes Global Commodity Markets
Pandemic uncertainty sent commodity volatility to extremes—energy collapsed while metals and grains diverged, testing risk discipline across 86 trading days.
Read the file →2020 · Commodities · US
2020: The Commodity Pandemic — Crash, Rebound, and the Volatility That Fooled Most
2020 commodities swung from historic crash to explosive rebound. RBOB surged 86.8%, silver +83.7% — but drawdowns of 40%+ tested survival, not just direction.
Read the file →2020 · Commodities · US
2020 August–December: Commodity Markets Navigate Pandemic Volatility — A Cross-Section Analysis
84 trading days across 27 commodity markets exposed how pandemic uncertainty reshaped industrial and agricultural pricing dynamics differently, rewarding process over prediction.
Read the file →2019 · Commodities · US
November 2019 – May 2020: How a Pandemic Shocked Global Commodity Markets
Tracing the commodity shockwave from pre-pandemic calm to pandemic disruption across 24 markets spanning energy, metals, agriculture, and softs over six months.
Read the file →2019 · Commodities · US
May 2019: Gold Breaks $1300, the Precious Metals Complex Follows
Gold's $1300 breach in May 2019 triggered a sustained rally, testing trend-following discipline across the precious metals complex over 64 trading days.
Read the file →2018 · Commodities · US
2018-02 to 2018-08: Policy Uncertainty and the Dollar Surge Reshape Global Commodity Markets
Six months of policy-driven commodity turbulence as USD strength and trade uncertainty created divergent outcomes across ferrous metals, energy, and agricultural markets.
Read the file →2018 · Commodities · US
October 2018: The Commodity Rout That Followed Peak Oil
Energy markets peaked in October 2018 then entered a sustained correction as demand fears, supply glut, and a Federal Reserve pivot reshaped commodity valuations across 32 scenarios.
Read the file →2018 · Commodities · US
Summer 2018: The Commodity Crash — Base Metals, Trade War, and the Emerging Market Stress Test
Copper crashed 16.1%, cocoa 20.3%, coffee 19.9% as US-China trade tensions and EM currency crises reshaped global commodity markets across summer 2018.
Read the file →2017 · Commodities · US
November 2017 – May 2018: Dollar Weakness, Inflation Dreams, and the Commodity Market's Hard Lesson
Commodity markets in late 2017 embraced a dollar-weakness thesis, but execution proved brutal — 27 instruments reveals how direction and process diverge under pressure.
Read the file →2016 · Commodities · GB
2016 Commodity Crisis: The Divergent Markets After Brexit
From July 2016, commodity markets fractured along sector lines as ferrous surged while precious metals corrected sharply, testing risk discipline across 19 replay scenarios.
Read the file →2016 · Commodities · US
November 8, 2016: Trump's Election Unleashed Policy-Driven Volatility Across Global Commodities
Trump's November 2016 victory sent commodity markets into a policy-driven turmoil, with ferrous metals and energies especially volatile across 114 trading days through March 2017.
Read the file →2015 · Commodities · US
December 16, 2015: The Fed's Rate Hike and the Global Commodity Rout
When the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in seven years, commodity markets felt it immediately. Dollar strength became the fuse for a cross-sector crisis that hit energy hardest.
Read the file →2014 · Commodities · US
August 2014–January 2015: Dollar Surge and Policy Divergence Fracture Global Commodities
How a dollar surge in October 2014, driven by Fed policy divergence, triggered a broad commodities collapse across energy, metals, and agriculture, with crude oil max drawdown reaching 54.9%.
Read the file →2014 · Commodities · US
Mid-2014: Energy Markets Peak Near $115, Then Turn — A 64-Day Replay
Energy markets peaked near $115 in early 2014 before turning lower. A 64-trading-day replay across Brent, WTI, natural gas, and refined products reveals why process matters more than direction.
Read the file →2013 · Commodities · US
Late 2013 to Spring 2014: Commodity Markets at the Crossroads of Dollar Strength
USD strength reshaped commodity markets — energy and metals fell while agriculture rallied across 26 instruments over six months.
Read the file →2013 · Commodities · US
2013 Summer: The Fed's Taper Talk and 72 Days Across Commodity Markets
Ben Bernanke's June 2013 taper hint shattered three months of commodity calm, sending corn into a 30.6% collapse while cocoa surged 14.6%.
Read the file →2012 · Commodities · US
Summer 2012: Drought and ECB OMT — The Dual Shock That Split Commodity Markets
June 2012 drought split US commodity markets while ECB's September OMT announcement reshaped global risk sentiment, creating divergent outcomes across grains, softs, and metals.
Read the file →2011 · Commodities · EU
2011 Summer: The Commodity Rout — US Downgrade, Euro Contagion, and 37 Scenarios of Market Stress
In August 2011, S&P downgraded US sovereign credit for the first time. A six-month commodity rout followed across energy, metals, and agriculture—37 decision scenarios from June to January.
Read the file →2010 · Commodities · EU
2010: Double Shock — European Debt Fears and a Russian Wheat Ban Rattled Global Commodities
In spring and summer 2010, two crises collided: EU sovereign debt sent commodities reeling, then a Russian drought and wheat export ban reshaped grain markets.
Read the file →2010 · Commodities · US
Late 2010: The QE2 Commodity Surge — How Federal Reserve Policy Reshaped Global Markets
On October 7, 2010, US commodity markets ignited as QE2 expectations flooded markets with liquidity, sending industrial metals, energy, and agriculture into a synchronized boom across 22 markets.
Read the file →2010 · Commodities · RU
August 2010: Russia's Wheat Export Ban and the Global Commodity Shock
Russia's wheat export ban in August 2010 triggered cross-commodity contagion, sending corn up 24.8% yet with 11.7% drawdowns and 6.1% single-day moves across 64 trading days.
Read the file →2009 · Commodities · US
2009 Commodities: Metals Rebound from Crisis Lows
In mid-2009, copper surged 26.4% and silver 39.1% as metals recovery tested every trader's conviction and discipline across 2009.
Read the file →2009 · Commodities · US
2009-11-17: Soft Commodities Diverge — A Post-Crisis Divergence Study
Six commodities, same six months: cotton +19%, sugar -36.5%, orange juice +27.2%. The divergence reveals why disciplined drawdown management matters more than directional calls.
Read the file →2009 · Commodities · US
February 2009: The Global Commodities Rebound — When Risk Assets Surged From Crisis Lows
February 2009: commodities began a broad rebound from crisis lows, with WTI crude soaring 65% and copper gaining 34% — yet the process demanded navigating 13-15% drawdowns.
Read the file →2008 · Commodities · US
2008: The Commodity Supercycle Unravels — When Everything That Rose Together Fell Together
From July 2008 peaks to January 2009 troughs, commodity markets experienced historic synchronized collapse as the global financial system seized up.
Read the file →2007 · Commodities · US
Late 2007 Commodity Supercycle: The Inflation Wave That Swept Every Market
How soft commodities, energy, grains and precious metals converged in late 2007 into a commodity inflation wave that tested every trader's risk discipline — before the 2008 crisis reshaped everything.
Read the file →2007 · Commodities · US
July 2007: Copper's Descent and the Great Commodity Fragmentation
July 2007: copper fell 14.8% as live cattle surged 49.6% and wheat gained 51.2%, revealing commodity markets fragmenting under subprime stress.
Read the file →2006 · Commodities · US
October 2006: Platinum, Energy, and the Early Pulse of a Commodity Surge
In October 2006, platinum futures began a 44-session surge that opened a commodities window running through May 2007, testing traders across energy, metals, and grains.
Read the file →2005 · Commodities · US
2005–2006: The Commodity Supercycle That Stress-Tested Every Trading Discipline
Six months that restructured commodity markets: copper surged 92.5% while natural gas crashed 47.3%, revealing that the boom was never one story.
Read the file →2005 · Commodities · US
2005-07-14: US Energy Futures Shock — Three Markets, Three Fates
Heating oil, natural gas, and WTI crude diverged sharply Jul–Dec 2005, geopolitical tensions and hurricane fears creating supply shocks that hit each market differently across 116 trading days.
Read the file →2004 · Commodities · US
November 2004–May 2005: The Commodities Reflation Boom and Its Decision Training Legacy
Commodities across energy, agriculture, and metals diverged sharply during the 2000s reflation wave, rewarding directional conviction while punishing process discipline with drawdowns up to 28.6%.
Read the file →2004 · Commodities · CN
Summer 2004: The Commodity Supercycle's First Stress Test
Eleven commodity replays, one summer. The 2004 boom tested conviction, position sizing, and the gap between directional calls and surviving drawdowns.
Read the file →2004 · Commodities · CN
2004 Commodity Supercycle: When the Supercycle Label Masked a Grains Massacre
In 2004, commodity markets entered a boom that proved deeply uneven—agricultural commodities suffered drawdowns far exceeding their net losses, while energy and precious metals told different stories.
Read the file →2003 · Commodities · US
2003–2004 US Energy Markets: Three Markets, One Seasonal-Geopolitical Signal
Heating oil, natural gas, and WTI crude oil surged from November 2003 through May 2004 as winter demand met Middle East supply fears. Natural gas led at 35%.
Read the file →2002 · Commodities · US
November 14, 2002: Copper Leads a Base Metals Recovery as Commodities Enter a New Cycle
Copper opened at 0.71 on November 14, 2002, kicking off a six-month metals recovery that tested every trader's discipline with drawdowns of 11–16%.
Read the file →2001 · Commodities · US
2001: When Geopolitical Shock Rewired Commodity Markets
In the autumn of 2001, commodities from copper to crude oil revealed how geopolitical shock reshapes market structure — and why process matters more than prediction.
Read the file →2001 · Commodities · US
2001: When the Dollar Bear Met Inflation — A Commodity Crossroads
Six months in late 2001 to mid-2002 when a depreciating dollar and twin-deficit fears reshaped commodity markets, producing wildly divergent outcomes across energy, agriculture, and metals.
Read the file →2000 · Commodities · US
2000-11-13: Gold, Platinum and Silver at the Dot-Com Peak — Six Months That Tested Conviction
Gold, platinum and silver drifted in narrow ranges as the dot-com boom peaked in November 2000; six months of low returns and hidden volatility followed, with max drawdowns ranging from 7.3% to 13.7%.
Read the file →2000 · Commodities · US
2000: The Soft Commodity Paradox — Internet Bubble Peak, Dollar Strength, and the Hidden Risk in Quiet Markets
Six months of soft commodity futures in 2000 reveal a counterintuitive truth: the loudest macro narrative can mask the most treacherous micro environments for traders who mistake stability for safety.
Read the file →1999 · Commodities · US
1999–2000: Commodities at the Crossroads — Dollar Strength, Internet Euphoria, and Four Markets That Divided
Four commodities, one dollar, two decades. A November 1999 to May 2000 window where rice drifted up, oats flatlined, and two precious metals told wildly different stories.
Read the file →