Cocoa Historical Replay: 2021-10 to 2022-01
Replay 66 daily bars of cocoa from October 2021 to January 2022, watching prices slide 7.5% into a 15.9% drawdown. Step through the timeline, tackle decision points, and receive an AI coach review of your choices in this simulated, educational scenario.
66 daily bars · 12 decision points · 2021-10 to 2022-01 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 95 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 15.9% and a 13.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −15.9%
- Max run-up
- +13.5%
- Duration
- 95 days
- Largest single-day move
- −4.7%
- Bars
- 66 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 12
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Cocoa futures from October 7, 2021 to January 10, 2022 offered traders a 66-bar daily replay set against a pivotal macro shift. The title signals the central tension: in November 2021 the Federal Reserve pivoted hawkish, lifting the US dollar and pressuring commodity markets broadly. For cocoa participants, the challenge was reading whether seasonal supply dynamics could withstand dollar-driven headwinds, or whether prices would crack under the weight of tightening financial conditions.
The outcome was a sustained pullback. Prices fell from 2726 to 2521, a decline of -7.5%, while the maximum drawdown reached 15.9%. The largest single-bar move of 4.7% underscored that intraday volatility could spike without warning. Twelve decision points punctuated the timeline, four identified as critical moments where directional conviction was tested most severely. Navigating this terrain required traders to distinguish between noise and genuine trend shifts.
This replay sharpens three decision-making muscles. Process discipline: working through 12 structured decision points forces deliberate analysis rather than passive holding. Risk tolerance: enduring a 15.9% equity curve trough without abandoning the framework tests whether drawdowns are managed or feared. Psychological flexibility: a -7.5% outcome that diverges from initial expectations teaches traders to update views based on evidence, not hope, and to distinguish between bad outcomes and bad processes.
Featured in the archive