Hot-rolled Coil Historical Replay: 2023-11 to 2024-05
Replay 116 daily bars of U.S. hot-rolled coil from late 2023 into 2024, a stretch that erased 6.7% as ferrous markets absorbed a 12.9% drawdown. Walk the 20 decision points yourself, then receive an AI coach review of each choice in simulated educational mode.
116 daily bars · 20 decision points · 2023-11 to 2024-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 177 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 12.9% and a 7.0% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −12.9%
- Max run-up
- +7.0%
- Duration
- 177 days
- Largest single-day move
- −2.3%
- Bars
- 116 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 20
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The scene opens in November 2023 as ferrous markets faced mounting uncertainty. Hot-rolled coil, a benchmark steel product that threads through construction, automotive, and manufacturing supply chains, was navigating crosscurrents of global trade policy and energy cost pressures. What began as gradual tension in shipping corridors would sharpen into the Red Sea geopolitical shock that defined early 2024. Participants entered a 116-day replay window from 2023-11-20 to 2024-05-15, confronting 20 decision points—seven marked as critical junctions where conviction and discipline would collide. The stakes were clear: understanding how geopolitical risk bleeds into commodity prices and whether an investor's framework can adapt when structural tailwinds flip into headwinds.
The numbers tell a story of grinding erosion rather than dramatic collapse. Hot-rolled coil closed the period at 3774, down from 4047—a decline of 6.7%. Underneath that headline figure, the market endured a maximum drawdown of 12.9%, with the largest single-bar move reaching 2.3%. These metrics reveal the difference between directional bias and survivable volatility: the drawdown shows that staying wrong for weeks is survivable; the 2.3% bar shows that panic and greed both spike on individual sessions. The 20 decision points forced participants to act into this chop, choosing when to add, cut, or hold as the geopolitical narrative evolved in real time.
This replay teaches that process beats prediction in geopolitical scenarios. The 12.9% drawdown rewards those who sized positions to survive reversals, not just anticipate direction. The 2.3% bars punish emotional doubling-down after losses. For decision training, the value lies in experiencing the psychology of holding through drawdown, the temptation to chase momentum after a single volatile bar, and the discipline required to reassess thesis without abandoning framework. The Red Sea episode is a classroom in humility: even correct macro calls can feel wrong for months, and the edge goes to those who survive the teaching moments.
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