Hot-rolled Coil Historical Replay: 2022-01 to 2022-06
Replay 90 daily bars of hot-rolled coil from January to June 2022, navigating 16 decision points including 6 critical ones amid war-driven volatility and a 14.3% drawdown. Step through each authentic session, face the forks, and receive an AI coach review on your simulated choices.
90 daily bars · 16 decision points · 2022-01 to 2022-06 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 140 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 14.3% and a 15.3% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −14.3%
- Max run-up
- +15.3%
- Duration
- 140 days
- Largest single-day move
- −3.7%
- Bars
- 90 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 16
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The period opens with hot-rolled coil futures trading at 4665 in mid-January 2022, as markets braced for what would become one of the most volatile first halves in commodities history. The 2020s decade had already seen unprecedented disruption, but the months ahead would test participants with war-driven uncertainty, supply chain fractures, and demand shifts that few had modeled. For traders and risk managers, this was not merely a price exercise but a stress test of conviction, position sizing, and emotional discipline under siege.
The six-month journey to June 6 delivered a modest net gain of 3.9%, closing at 4845, yet this headline number concealed a brutal interior marked by a 14.3% maximum drawdown and single-bar moves reaching 3.7%. Participants faced 16 decision points, six of them critical junctions where the margin between foresight and hindsight narrowed to a razor's edge. Every session demanded a fresh read of sentiment, a recalibration of exposure, and a willingness to revise thesis under duress.
What this replay ultimately teaches is that process outweighs prediction. The 14.3% drawdown is not a failure if it is contained by discipline; it becomes catastrophic only when psychology overrides rules. Six critical decisions remind us that conviction without flexibility is recklessness, and that the real skill in volatile markets is knowing when to stand firm and when to adapt. This scenario sharpens the instinct to manage risk first, preserve capital through turbulence, and treat every bar as a lesson in humility.
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