War Archive
Geopolitical conflict repricing risk in gaps. War replays study how markets absorb fear, scarcity and reconstruction.
13 archive files
2025 · Commodities · US
2025 February–August: Tariff Escalation and the Commodity Drawdown — When Geopolitical Friction Flattened Net Returns
US commodities buckled under tariff escalation and geopolitical friction; 13 replays capture drawdowns of 10–36% with near-zero net returns.
Read the file →2024 · Commodities · BR
2024: Three Commodity Shocks and the Traders Who Rode Them
Precious metals shattered records, Brazil's drought reshaped soft commodities, and Middle East tensions roiled energy markets across 126 trading days of 2024.
Read the file →2023 · Commodities · US
November 2023–May 2024: Red Sea Tensions and the Global Commodity Boom
Geopolitical shock from Red Sea shipping disruptions drove extreme divergence across commodity markets, with cocoa soaring 150.7% and natural gas plunging 26.5% in six months of heightened volatility.
Read the file →2023 · Forex · US
November 2023: Red Sea Tensions Shook Global Forex — 79 Currency Pairs Under the Microscope
Geopolitical fault line meets currency markets: how Red Sea tensions from November 2023 reshaped 79 forex pairs across six months and 132 trading days.
Read the file →2022 · Forex · US
2022 Autumn: Three Forex Storms — Yen Intervention, UK Mini-Budget, Dollar Peak at 114
USD/JPY reversed after Japan's finance ministry intervened; GBP collapsed on the UK mini-budget crisis; DXY hit 114 in Q4 2022 — all within months.
Read the file →2022 · Forex · RU
2022 Early: Geopolitical War Shock and Global FX Repricing
When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the ruble's 53% drawdown became the defining FX crisis — rippling through 87 emerging-market currencies from January through May.
Read the file →2022 · Commodities · RU
January–June 2022: The Russia-Ukraine War and the Commodity Rout
Geopolitical conflict shattered commodity markets in early 2022, sending energy and grain prices into historic volatility across 42 historical replay scenarios.
Read the file →2022 · Forex · EU
2022: The Euro's Parity Crisis — G10 Forex Under Geopolitical Stress
ECB's 2022 rate hike amid war-driven energy shocks sent the euro toward dollar parity across G10 pairs, with drawdowns reaching 8.6%.
Read the file →2019 · Forex · US
August 5, 2019: RMB Breaks 7 — the Chain Reaction That Shook EM Forex
August 5, 2019 — the USD/CNY pair crosses 7 for the first time in years, igniting a shockwave across emerging-market currencies and G10 forex. 2019, forex, US and CN.
Read the file →2019 · Forex · CN
August 2019: Renminbi Crosses 7, EM Forex Caught in the Trade-War Crossfire
When the renminbi broke through 7 in August 2019, Indonesia's rupiah and five other ASEAN currencies faced a cascade of spillover pressure — the full 66-day window and its trading lessons.
Read the file →2018 · Commodities · US
Summer 2018: The Commodity Crash — Base Metals, Trade War, and the Emerging Market Stress Test
Copper crashed 16.1%, cocoa 20.3%, coffee 19.9% as US-China trade tensions and EM currency crises reshaped global commodity markets across summer 2018.
Read the file →2018 · Forex · TR
Summer 2018: Trade War and EM Currency Crisis Collide Across 76 FX Replays
Trade-war depreciation of the yuan and the Turkey-Argentina crisis tested global FX in summer 2018 across 76 currency-pair scenarios.
Read the file →2001 · Commodities · US
2001: When Geopolitical Shock Rewired Commodity Markets
In the autumn of 2001, commodities from copper to crude oil revealed how geopolitical shock reshapes market structure — and why process matters more than prediction.
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