Bubble Archive
Euphoria priced for perfection, until it was not. These replays train you to hold winners while measuring how far narrative has outrun fundamentals.
18 archive files
2018 · Property · US
2018–2021: The Great Property Divergence — US Resilience vs. Chinese Urban Cooling
Two property universes, one pandemic. US markets climbed while Chinese cities collapsed — a divergence rooted in policy, leverage, and information asymmetry.
Read the file →2017 · Property · US
2017 US-China City Property Boom: Low Volatility, High Discipline
2017–2019 US and China urban property markets delivered steady gains with compressed volatility—a training ground for disciplined decision-making under deceptive calm.
Read the file →2016 · Property · CN
China Property 2016: De-Stocking Surge Meets the Housing Principle Pivot
Surging mortgage credit and escalating home prices met sudden municipal curbs and an overarching policy pivot. Covers China property in 2016.
Read the file →2016 · Property · US
2016: How Two Property Markets Learned the Same Low-Volatility Lesson
China tier-1 and US coastal property surged into sustained low-volatility advances in 2016, proving that quiet markets and safe markets are not the same thing.
Read the file →2015 · Property · US
2015-12: The Fed's First Post-Crisis Hike and the Calm That Followed in US Property
In December 2015 the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in nearly a decade, testing US property markets already in multi-year recovery. The reaction was remarkably muted.
Read the file →2006 · Forex · CN
Mid-2006: CNY Revaluation and the G10 Forex Boom — When Direction Deceived
May–Aug 2006: CNY's gradual appreciation reshaped G10 FX flows; AUD/USD, AUD/JPY carry, and EM crosses revealed how micro-direction masked macro volatility.
Read the file →2006 · Forex · JP
2006 Global Carry Trade Bubble: Anatomy of a 130-Day Forex Unwind
On February 15, 2006, the global carry trade era began unraveling. This article traces the mechanics, spread, and impact across 56 currency pairs over six months.
Read the file →2005 · Forex · JP
2005–2006: The Global Carry Trade Unwind and Its FX Aftermath
In late 2005, a coordinated unwinding of yen-funded carry trades shook forex markets across G10 and EM pairs — a pattern now studied for decision-training.
Read the file →2004 · Property · US
2004: US Housing Bubble — The Low-Volatility Illusion
17 US housing replays, 2004–2011: low-volatility boom masked fragility; subprime expansion ended in crisis.
Read the file →2004 · Property · US
June 2004: The U.S. Housing Bubble's Final Acceleration — When Low Volatility Became a Warning Signal
In mid-2004, U.S. housing entered its last surge phase. Case-Shiller indices climbed without meaningful correction, lulling participants before the 2008 reckoning.
Read the file →2004 · Forex · JP
2004-07-21: The USD/BRL Reversal — Brazil's Real and the Carry Trade Unwind
Brazilian real's 29% appreciation from July 2004 to August 2006 exposed the fragility of carry-funded EM positions when global liquidity conditions shift.
Read the file →2003 · Property · US
2003: The Zero-Drawdown Housing Market and the Psychology of Stability
June 2003: the Fed had cut rates, housing was climbing, and American cities entered a 30-month run with nearly zero drawdowns. What could go wrong?
Read the file →2002 · Property · US
August 2002 – January 2005: The Zero-Drawdown Housing Rally That Rewrote Market Assumptions
Eleven US housing markets climbed 28–59% over 30 months without a single monthly drawdown — a record that rewrote assumptions about real estate risk.
Read the file →2001 · Property · US
October 2001: The Subprime Lending Boom Begins — US Housing Enters Its Acceleration Phase
In October 2001, the US housing market entered an unprecedented acceleration phase as subprime lending reshaped property valuations across major cities, creating the foundation for the 2000s bubble.
Read the file →1999 · Property · US
1999: The Quiet Opening — How Steady Gains Built the American Housing Bubble
In March 1999, US housing entered an era of frictionless appreciation. Ten cities, zero drawdowns, 30 bars of steady climb — and the slow birth of a crisis.
Read the file →1998 · Property · US
1998 Spring: US Housing's Low-Volatility Boom — Zero Drawdowns and the Complacency Trap
In spring 1998 the US property market entered a sustained ascent. Boston at 80.2, San Francisco at 77.48 — the data shows a systematic low-volatility boom that planted the seeds of its own undoing.
Read the file →1996 · Property · CA
1996: The Quiet Property Boom — Five Markets, One Shared Lesson
Five national property indices rose in unison without meaningful correction, demanding a different kind of discipline from traders and investors.
Read the file →1985 · Property · CA
1985–1992: Four National Property Markets — Divergent Recovery, Hidden Crises
Four nations, one market type, vastly different trajectories: how aggregate data concealed regional crises and what that means for decision training.
Read the file →