Iron Ore Historical Replay: 2021-10 to 2022-01
Replay the 2021-10 to 2022-01 iron ore slide that cut prices 28.4% at worst drawdown, then rebounded 17.8% to close at 766.5. Step through 68 daily bars day-by-day, tackle 12 decision points (4 critical), and receive AI coach review on your choices in this simulated educational replay.
68 daily bars · 12 decision points · 2021-10 to 2022-01 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 96 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 28.4% and a 49.9% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −28.4%
- Max run-up
- +49.9%
- Duration
- 96 days
- Largest single-day move
- −8.6%
- Bars
- 68 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 12
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In the autumn of 2021, Chinese iron ore markets faced an unprecedented policy shock. Beijing's environmental regulators tightened output controls on steel producers, sending ripples through the entire ferrous supply chain. Over the following months, participants had to navigate a market reshaped by regulatory intervention, where traditional demand-supply analysis proved insufficient and policy signals became as critical as price data. The stakes were considerable: positions could be wiped out in hours if one misjudged the regulatory tempo.
The data reveals the brutal nature of that episode. From the October 21 opening, prices ultimately suffered a maximum drawdown of 28.4% before staging a recovery that closed the period at 766.5, representing a net gain of 17.8%. The most volatile single session saw an 8.6% swing, underscoring how quickly sentiment could reverse. Across 68 daily bars and 12 decision points—four of them criticaljunctures—traders were forced to repeatedly reassess positions under evolving policy conditions. The market offered no steady hand to hold.
This replay distills several enduring lessons for market participants. First, regulatory risk demands position sizing discipline: a single adverse move of 8.6% can devastate concentrated exposures. Second, the recovery phase tested conviction management—holding through a 28.4% drawdown requires robust process and emotional control. Finally, the episode illustrates that in policy-driven markets, information synthesis across supply, demand, and regulatory channels determines survival more than chart reading alone. For trainees, this scenario is a laboratory for stress-testing decision frameworks under genuine uncertainty.
Featured in the archive