Coke Historical Replay: 2021-10 to 2022-01
Replay the brutal 2021 ferrous selloff as coking coal fell 19.1% across 68 daily bars marked by 31.6% drawdown. Walk through each session, hit 4 critical decision points, and receive an AI coach review based on simulated capital only.
68 daily bars · 12 decision points · 2021-10 to 2022-01 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 96 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 31.6% and a 22.7% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −31.6%
- Max run-up
- +22.7%
- Duration
- 96 days
- Largest single-day move
- −9.5%
- Bars
- 68 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 12
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In the autumn of 2021, China's commodities market faced an unprecedented wave of policy intervention. Coking coal, the critical input for steelmaking, became a focal point as Beijing moved to cool surging raw material costs that threatened industrial margins and downstream price stability. For traders and risk managers, this period represented a collision between fundamentals and regulatory will, a scenario that tests conviction and forces painful reassessment of position sizing. The market had grown accustomed to tight supply dynamics, but policy signals in October shifted the landscape abruptly.
What followed was a sustained liquidation phase across 68 daily bars. Prices retreated from 3663.5 to 2962.5, representing a 19.1% decline that concealed far more violent underlying swings. The maximum drawdown reached 31.6%, meaning peak-to-trough losses substantially exceeded the headline percentage change. The largest single session saw a 9.5% move, underscoring the volatility spikes that accompany regulatory-driven corrections. These figures capture a market where momentum reversed sharply and where false recovery attempts likely trapped aggressive buyers.
For decision training purposes, this episode illustrates the paramount importance of separating signal from noise during policy transitions. When regulatory intent is unambiguous, historical supply-demand logic may prove insufficient as a positioning guide. The scenario offers 12 decision points, 4 of which are critical junctures where directional conviction and risk calibration were tested simultaneously. Trainees confronting this replay learn that drawdown management, position scaling, and the humility to question prevailing narratives are essential disciplines when authorities intervene decisively in commodity markets.
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