Coke Historical Replay: 2021-09 to 2021-12
Coking coal plunged 28.4% across 54 trading days ending December 2, 2021, as Beijing's regulatory crackdown hammered the ferrous complex. Replay this authentic historical window day-by-day, confront 4 critical decision points, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated calls.
54 daily bars · 10 decision points · 2021-09 to 2021-12 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 84 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 41.1% and a 38.7% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −41.1%
- Max run-up
- +38.7%
- Duration
- 84 days
- Largest single-day move
- −9.5%
- Bars
- 54 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 10
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The scenario immerses participants in the Chinese coking coal market across the 2020s, specifically the window from September 9, 2021 to December 2, 2021. During this period, Beijing's regulatory crackdown was intensifying its pressure on the ferrous complex, creating an environment where policy signals could overwhelm traditional supply-demand dynamics. Traders faced the challenge of navigating a market where government intervention could strike without warning, fundamentally altering price trajectories and risk landscapes overnight.
Over 54 trading days, coking coal prices collapsed from 3787.5 to 2710, representing a decline of -28.4%. The market experienced a maximum drawdown of 41.1% and the largest single-bar move reached 9.5%, underscoring the brutal volatility that characterized this selloff. Participants confronted 10 decision points spread across the period, with 4 critical junctures demanding decisive action amid extreme uncertainty. The scenario forces learners to make calls when the trend is already well advanced and the regulatory backdrop remains ambiguous.
This replay teaches that policy-driven markets demand process over prediction. The extreme drawdown demonstrates how quickly adverse moves can compound, while the 9.5% single-bar swings illustrate that volatility itself becomes a risk factor requiring active management. For decision training, the value lies in confronting cognitive biases that lead traders to underweight non-economic factors like regulation, and in building the emotional discipline to execute plans when prices move violently against positions. The 4 critical decision points serve as laboratories for testing whether one's methodology holds under the psychological pressure of a sustained regulatory-driven collapse.
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