Hot-rolled Coil Historical Replay: 2021-10 to 2022-01
Replay 68 daily bars of hot-rolled coil from October 2021 through January 2022, a period that saw an 18.4% drawdown amid ferrous regulation. Step through each decision point, commit trades, and receive AI coach feedback in a simulated educational environment.
68 daily bars · 12 decision points · 2021-10 to 2022-01 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 96 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 18.4% and a 11.8% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −18.4%
- Max run-up
- +11.8%
- Duration
- 96 days
- Largest single-day move
- +5.2%
- Bars
- 68 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 12
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The scenario replays Chinese hot-rolled coil futures across 68 trading days from October 21, 2021 through January 25, 2022. This period falls squarely within the 2020s and is defined by escalating regulatory intervention in the ferrous metals complex. Against a backdrop of policy-driven uncertainty, market participants faced the challenge of navigating a commodity whose fundamental drivers were being reshaped by government directives rather than purely traditional supply-demand mechanics. The stage was set for testing how traders respond when the usual playbook becomes obsolete.
What unfolded was a sustained downtrend: the contract fell from 5,268 to 4,844, representing an 8.0% decline over the replay window. The journey was far from linear, with the market experiencing an 18.4% maximum drawdown from peak to trough. Volatility manifested in sharp individual sessions, including moves of 5.2% in a single trading day. Across the 12 decision points embedded in the replay—four designated as critical—participants were forced to repeatedly reassess positions as regulation continued to reshape market expectations.
The core educational value lies in confronting the psychological strain of trend-following during policy-driven drawdowns. Managing risk when the largest single-bar move can be 5.2% demands disciplined position sizing and clear pre-commitment to exit criteria. Participants learn that in regulated markets, distinguishing between noise and structural shifts requires a repeatable process rather than reactive improvisation. The replay trains traders to document their reasoning, accept documented losses, and avoid the trap of averaging down in environments where policy uncertainty can extend losses beyond comfort.
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