Rebar Historical Replay: 2018-06 to 2018-09
Replay 68 daily bars of the 2018 rebar crash, a 7.9% max drawdown that tested even seasoned ferrous traders. Step through each session, face 12 decision points with 4 critical, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
68 daily bars · 12 decision points · 2018-06 to 2018-09 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 96 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 7.9% and a 19.7% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −7.9%
- Max run-up
- +19.7%
- Duration
- 96 days
- Largest single-day move
- −5.0%
- Bars
- 68 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 12
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The summer of 2018 brought a severe test to China's ferrous market. Rebar, the backbone of construction steel demand, faced mounting pressure as seasonal slowdown collided with policy uncertainty. Over 68 trading sessions from late June through late September, traders navigated a landscape where even small position errors could compound into significant losses. The market's 7.9% maximum drawdown during this period made it clear that defensive discipline mattered more than directional conviction.
The numbers tell the story of a turbulent journey: prices opened at 3773 and closed at 4060, representing a modest 7.6% recovery from the session lows. Yet this headline figure obscures the violence of individual sessions, with the largest single-bar move reaching 5.0%. Such spikes tested risk management protocols and forced traders to constantly reassess position sizing under uncertainty.
For decision training, this replay offers a masterclass in volatility management. The 12 decision points—4 of them critical junctures—simulate the psychological pressure of real market conditions. Participants learn that surviving drawdowns requires not just technical analysis but emotional resilience. The goal is not to predict every move but to build processes that keep losses contained while remaining responsive to genuine trend shifts. Historical replays like this sharpen judgment without risking actual capital.