Rebar Historical Replay: 2014-11 to 2015-05
Replay 114 daily bars of a rebar crash from 2014-11 to 2015-05, with close falling 2.3% to 2391 and a 13.5% drawdown. Walk through each session, weigh 20 decision points including 7 critical ones, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
114 daily bars · 20 decision points · 2014-11 to 2015-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 172 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 13.5% and a 7.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −13.5%
- Max run-up
- +7.5%
- Duration
- 172 days
- Largest single-day move
- +3.7%
- Bars
- 114 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 20
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In late 2014, Chinese ferrous markets entered a turbulent period as overcapacity concerns and weakening demand weighed on rebar prices. This replay simulates 114 daily bars from 2014-11-21 to 2015-05-12, placing traders in the middle of a sustained downtrend where each session demanded calculated risk decisions. The scenario captures a 2010s commodity crash in its raw form, before fundamentals eventually stabilized.
The numbers tell a story of grinding pressure: close fell from 2448 to 2391, a modest -2.3% decline, yet the journey was far from calm. Maximum drawdown reached 13.5%, and volatility punctuated the period with the largest single-bar move of 3.7%. Twenty decision points scattered across the data span—seven marked as critical—tested whether participants could navigate cascading risk while avoiding panic exits or ill-timed entries.
This replay hones three core skills: process discipline under drawdown pressure, risk calibration when headlines amplify fear, and psychological resilience when the tape shows relentless grinding losses. Surviving a 13.5% drawdown without abandoning a sound framework separates disciplined traders from reactive ones. The 2010s ferrous crash offers a historical laboratory to practice exactly that.