Rebar Historical Replay: 2014-10 to 2015-04
Replay 116 trading days as US rebar slid from 2614 to 2290, a 12.4% decline with a 12.6% peak drawdown. Walk through the historical chart day-by-day, tackle 20 decision points including 7 critical ones, and receive an AI coach review of each simulated choice.
116 daily bars · 20 decision points · 2014-10 to 2015-04 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 171 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 12.6% and a 7.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −12.6%
- Max run-up
- +7.5%
- Duration
- 171 days
- Largest single-day move
- +3.7%
- Bars
- 116 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 20
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In the final months of 2014, ferrous markets faced mounting headwinds as global demand signals weakened and supply continued to flow. US rebar, a critical construction input, entered a sustained correction that would test the resolve of any participant holding long exposure. The period from October 20, 2014 through April 9, 2015 represented a textbook case of a commodities bear cycle unfolding in real time.
Over 116 trading days, rebar prices descended from 2614 to 2290, recording a cumulative decline of 12.4%. The journey was not linear—volatility surfaced in single-day moves of up to 3.7%, while peak drawdown reached 12.6%. Participants faced 20 decision points across the replay, including 7 critical junctures where directional conviction and risk management were severely tested.
This replay sharpens decision training by immersing participants in a sustained downtrend where being right on direction proved insufficient without proper process. The 12.6% drawdown illustrates how even a moderate-looking 12.4% decline can impose significant paper losses, demanding disciplined position sizing and pre-defined exit triggers. The psychology of loss aversion intensifies as prices grind lower, teaching participants to recognize when stubbornness masquerades as conviction. Navigating 20 decision points, including the 7 most critical, builds the habit of deliberate evaluation under uncertainty—a skill transferrable beyond any single market cycle.