Hot-rolled Coil Historical Replay: 2014-10 to 2015-04
Replay a 116-day ferrous crash as Hot-Rolled Coil plunged 18.4% from 2,896 to 2,362 between October 2014 and April 2015. Step through 20 decision points, including 7 critical ones, with AI coach review of your simulated choices.
116 daily bars · 20 decision points · 2014-10 to 2015-04 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 171 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 22.1% and a 6.4% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −22.1%
- Max run-up
- +6.4%
- Duration
- 171 days
- Largest single-day move
- +3.9%
- Bars
- 116 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 20
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The autumn of 2014 found commodity markets at a crossroads. Hot-rolled coil, a benchmark steel product driving global industrial activity, was entering a prolonged structural downtrend that would reshape supply chains and trader expectations across the ferrous sector. The period from October 2014 through April 2015 represented a decisive phase for anyone managing exposure to industrial metals, with macro headwinds mounting and demand signals weakening across major economies.
Over 116 trading days, hot-rolled coil fell from 2,896 to 2,362, delivering an 18.4% decline that tested risk management frameworks and emotional discipline alike. The market carved a maximum drawdown of 22.1%, meaning peak-to-trough losses exceeded the headline percentage by a meaningful margin. Volatility manifested in daily swings reaching 3.9% on the largest single bar, creating repeated moments where composure could be easily lost. Participants navigating this environment faced a sustained directional move rather than a sharp correction, demanding different skills than those suited to quick reversals.
This replay offers a rigorous laboratory for decision training. With 20 decision points embedded across the dataset, including 7 designated as critical junctures, traders can practice sizing, timing, and risk calibration under uncertainty. The scenario tests whether one can distinguish between noise and signal in a declining market, maintain position discipline through a 22.1% drawdown, and avoid common psychological traps like averaging down or premature capitulation. Success here is not about predicting the bottom but about executing a sound process when the market offers no easy answers.