Hot-rolled Coil Historical Replay: 2014-11 to 2015-05
Replay 114 daily bars from November 2014 through May 2015 as hot-rolled coil fell 13.8% amid a broader commodity bear market. You navigate 20 decision points across 7 critical moments, with simulated capital and AI coach review on every choice.
114 daily bars · 20 decision points · 2014-11 to 2015-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 172 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 22.1% and a 9.4% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −22.1%
- Max run-up
- +9.4%
- Duration
- 172 days
- Largest single-day move
- +3.9%
- Bars
- 114 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 20
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The replay immerses you in China's ferrous commodities market during November 2014 through May 2015, a period when the steel sector navigated slowing domestic demand and mounting overcapacity pressures. Across 114 daily bars, participants guide simulated capital through 20 decision points, with 7 designated as critical moments demanding careful risk assessment. The stakes are clear: how to preserve capital when macro tailwinds favor the bears.
The headline outcome tells a stark story—hot-rolled coil fell from 2884 to 2486, a decline of 13.8%. Yet the journey proved more treacherous than the final number suggests. Maximum drawdown reached 22.1%, meaning peak-to-trough losses substantially exceeded the closing loss. The largest single-bar move of 3.9% illustrates the volatility spikes that tested position management throughout this descent.
This scenario sharpens decision-training on multiple fronts. Participants confront the psychological strain of sitting through extended drawdowns, learning to separate temporary fluctuations from structural trends. The gap between headline decline and maximum drawdown reveals how poorly-timed entries or exits can transform a manageable 13.8% loss into a 22.1% hemorrhage. Process discipline—position sizing, stop logic, emotional composure—emerges as the defining difference between those who navigate volatility and those who amplify it.