Cocoa Historical Replay: 2024-11 to 2025-02
Replay 62 daily cocoa bars from 2024-11 to 2025-02, watching the price slide from 8897 to 8352 with a 33.5% drawdown. Work through 4 critical decision points day-by-day, then receive an AI coach review of your choices in this simulated training scenario.
62 daily bars · 11 decision points · 2024-11 to 2025-02 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 94 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 33.5% and a 42.3% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −33.5%
- Max run-up
- +42.3%
- Duration
- 94 days
- Largest single-day move
- +13.7%
- Bars
- 62 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Cocoa markets entering late 2024 faced a complex environment shaped by the Trump election victory on November 5. The immediate dollar strength created a policy shock that rippled through soft commodity markets. This scenario replays 62 daily bars spanning 2024-11-22 to 2025-02-24 in the 2020s, asking how traders should navigate a market where political events create sudden volatility and sustained uncertainty.
The price journey from 8897 to 8352 delivered a -6.1% decline, but the headline number obscures far greater turbulence beneath the surface. The market endured a 33.5% max drawdown, with the largest single-bar move reaching 13.7%. These figures reveal a market that offered multiple sharp reversals and trend tests, rewarding those with disciplined position management and punishing those caught in reactive trading.
Eleven decision points, four marked as critical, demand participants choose between holding through volatility and reducing exposure. The 13.7% single-bar spike demonstrates how policy surprises can generate sudden, violent moves that challenge even well-prepared traders. Surviving a 33.5% drawdown requires strict position sizing and emotional discipline. This replay teaches that process consistency during drawdowns matters more than predicting policy outcomes, and that staying in the game through volatility is prerequisite to capturing eventual directional moves.
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