Soybean Historical Replay: 2021-11 to 2022-02
Replay 60 daily bars of soybeans from 2021-11-24 to 2022-02-18 as inflation surged and the close climbed 26.5%. Step through 11 decision points, including 4 critical ones, and receive an AI coach review on each simulated choice.
60 daily bars · 11 decision points · 2021-11 to 2022-02 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 86 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 3.9% and a 31.6% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −3.9%
- Max run-up
- +31.6%
- Duration
- 86 days
- Largest single-day move
- +2.6%
- Bars
- 60 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
This scenario replays soybeans in the commodities market across a 60-bar stretch from 2021-11-24 to 2022-02-18. The period coincided with surging inflation that dominated market narratives, while the Federal Reserve signaled a hawkish shift and the US dollar strengthened. For grain traders, this created a particularly tricky environment: commodities often benefit from inflation but face headwinds from a stronger currency, forcing participants to navigate competing forces rather than follow a simple directional bias.
Over those 60 daily bars, the close price climbed from 1266.5 to 1601.5, delivering a 26.5% gain. Notably, the max drawdown stayed contained at just 3.9%, and the largest single-bar move registered 2.6%—suggesting the uptrend was relatively smooth rather than jagged. Yet the scenario places traders at 11 decision points, 4 of them flagged as critical, where the path forward was far from obvious in real time.
For decision training, the episode illustrates how an inflationary backdrop can fuel sustained commodity rallies while monetary tightening creates underlying uncertainty. The tight max drawdown of 3.9% highlights the importance of position sizing and stop discipline even in trending markets. The 2.6% single-bar volatility reminds practitioners to size positions so that any one move does not destabilize a portfolio. Psychologically, the scenario trains traders to resist premature exits during pullbacks and to reassess conviction at each critical node rather than anchoring to initial entry prices.
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