Hot-rolled Coil Historical Replay: 2021-05 to 2021-08
Replay 66 daily bars of China's hot-rolled coil market from May to August 2021, navigating a peak before policy-driven cooling and a 12.6% drawdown. Step through each decision point day by day, get an AI coach review of your simulated choices, and learn from real market history.
66 daily bars · 12 decision points · 2021-05 to 2021-08 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 94 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 12.6% and a 23.0% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −12.6%
- Max run-up
- +23.0%
- Duration
- 94 days
- Largest single-day move
- −6.3%
- Bars
- 66 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 12
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In May 2021, China's hot-rolled coil market stood at a precarious summit. Steel prices had climbed to multi-year highs, fueled by robust infrastructure demand and supply-side bottlenecks. Yet the 2020s commodity boom was about to encounter a powerful counterforce: Beijing's escalating campaign to cool raw material costs and ease factory inflation. This replay drops you into that delicate moment, tasking you with navigating 66 daily bars from the peak toward an uncertain horizon.
Between 2021-05-21 and 2021-08-23, the market delivered a lesson in volatility. The close shifted from 5493 to 5464, a seemingly modest -0.5% move that concealed a deeper story: a maximum drawdown of 12.6% and a largest single-bar move of 6.3%. Across 12 decision points—4 deemed critical—you would have faced the psychological test of holding positions through sharp reversals while policy signals grew increasingly hawkish. The margin between disciplined exits and costly exposure was razor-thin.
For decision training, this scenario exposes the gap between directional conviction and risk management. The drawdown figure alone warns that even correct macro theses can punish position sizing failures. The 6.3% single-bar volatility reminds traders that stop-loss discipline must account for intraday spikes, not just close-to-close moves. Psychologically, holding through a 12.6% decline tests conviction; the replay forces you to examine whether your decisions stem from analysis or from the dangerous comfort of hope. Process, not prediction, becomes the true metric of skill.
Featured in the archive