Hot-rolled Coil Historical Replay: 2021-04 to 2021-07
Replay 56 daily bars of hot-rolled coil from April through July 2021, when prices climbed from 5265 to 5418 on a 24.9% drawdown path. Step into 10 decision points, including 4 critical ones, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices for educational insight.
56 daily bars · 10 decision points · 2021-04 to 2021-07 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 81 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 24.9% and a 26.9% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −24.9%
- Max run-up
- +26.9%
- Duration
- 81 days
- Largest single-day move
- +5.6%
- Bars
- 56 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 10
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Hot-rolled coil, a cornerstone of China's steel supply chain, entered a turbulent phase from April to July 2021. Global commodity markets in the 2020s had already weathered pandemic disruptions and policy uncertainty. This replay spans 56 daily bars, placing you at the center of a market where reading policy signals and managing downside exposure meant the difference between survival and wiping out.
The price moved from 5265 to 5418, a mere 2.9% net gain over the period. Yet this paltry advance came after a stomach-churning journey featuring a maximum drawdown of 24.9%. A single trading session produced a 5.6% move, the kind of violent swing that destroys improperly sized positions. Trend-followers chased breakouts only to be stopped out, while range-traders misjudged reversals at precisely the wrong moments.
This replay trains you to evaluate decisions by process, not outcome. A 24.9% drawdown on a 2.9% gain reveals how interim losses compound psychologically and financially. You learn to size positions to survive drawdowns, set stops that account for intraday spikes, and question whether your thesis survives regime changes. With four critical decision points woven through the scenario, the experience builds the discipline needed to act when markets deceive rather than confirm.
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