Heating Oil Historical Replay: 2021-11 to 2022-02
Replay 60 daily bars of US heating oil from 2021-11-24 to 2022-02-18 as it climbed 16.8% amid shifting inflation signals. Step through 11 decision points, four critical, and receive an AI coach review of your choices in a simulated environment.
60 daily bars · 11 decision points · 2021-11 to 2022-02 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 86 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 13.4% and a 43.7% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −13.4%
- Max run-up
- +43.7%
- Duration
- 86 days
- Largest single-day move
- −12.2%
- Bars
- 60 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Heating oil sat at the crossroads of two powerful forces in late 2021: surging inflation and a Federal Reserve preparing to tighten policy. As winter demand for energy commodities overlapped with mounting price pressures across the economy, heating oil became a barometer for traders trying to anticipate central bank moves and their impact on energy markets. The period from November 2021 through February 2022 tested every participant's ability to read shifting signals in real time.
Over 60 daily bars from 2021-11-24 to 2022-02-18, heating oil rose from 2.38 to 2.78, a gain of 16.8%. Yet the path was anything but smooth. The market experienced a maximum drawdown of 13.4%, and the largest single-bar move reached 12.2%, underscoring the volatility that accompanies energy markets when inflation expectations are in flux. Participants faced 11 decision points across this span, with 4 identified as critical moments where positioning choices carried outsized consequences for portfolio outcomes.
This replay isolates the core tensions in energy trading: distinguishing between noise and genuine trend shifts, sizing positions when volatility spikes, and managing the psychological weight of drawdowns that approach the magnitude of the ultimate move. Training here centers on building discipline to follow a process when daily swings threaten to derail rational decision-making, and developing the self-awareness to recognize when market conditions have fundamentally shifted.
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