Cocoa Historical Replay: 2021-02 to 2021-05
Replay 66 days of cocoa trading from February to May 2021, where prices swung with an 18.0% drawdown and an 8.5% single-day shock. You step through the timeline bar by bar, face 12 decision points, and receive an AI coach review in this simulated educational training environment.
66 daily bars · 12 decision points · 2021-02 to 2021-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 93 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 18.0% and a 13.8% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −18.0%
- Max run-up
- +13.8%
- Duration
- 93 days
- Largest single-day move
- −8.5%
- Bars
- 66 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 12
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In early 2021, the cocoa market entered a period of intense turbulence that would test the resolve of any trader operating in soft commodities. Over the 66 trading days from February 3 to May 7, participants faced a market where supply concerns and demand dynamics created an environment of heightened uncertainty. The stakes were considerable: navigating a complex geopolitical and agricultural landscape while managing exposure to a commodity known for its volatility.
The numbers tell a story of significant stress. Cocoa prices fell from 2527 to 2422, a decline of 4.2% over the period. Yet this headline figure masks more dramatic internal volatility, with maximum drawdown reaching 18.0% and a single trading day delivering an 8.5% shock move. These extremes compressed into roughly two months created conditions where risk management discipline was not merely advisable but essential for survival.
The scenario placed traders at 12 decision points, four of which were critical junctures where positioning choices could substantially alter outcomes. This replay teaches that in volatile commodity markets, process discipline matters more than directional conviction. Understanding position sizing, accepting that drawdowns are inevitable, and maintaining psychological equilibrium during sudden shocks separates those who remain engaged from those who are forced out. The 8.5% single-bar event reminds us that tail risks are not theoretical in soft commodities.
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