US National (FHFA, 1975Q1+) Historical Replay: 2008-04 to 2015-07
Replay 30 monthly bars of the US national housing collapse from April 2008 to July 2015, navigating a 15.0% max drawdown. Make decisions at six key decision points, including two critical calls, and receive an AI coach review of your reasoning.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2008-04 to 2015-07 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 15.0% with a 16.6% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −15.0%
- Max run-up
- +16.6%
- Largest single-month move
- −3.1%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In April 2008, the US national housing market stood at the epicenter of the global financial crisis, a collapse that had already wiped out trillions in homeowner equity and was spreading contagion across the global financial system. The FHFA index tracked monthly price movements across the entire nation, and the period extending to July 2015 captured not just the initial crash but also the agonizing multi-year bottoming process. What was at stake was nothing less than the retirement savings, mortgage stability, and neighborhood wealth of millions of American families navigating the worst housing downturn since the Great Depression.
Over 30 monthly bars spanning this era, the national index closed the period at 359.33 from an opening of 362.43, a seemingly modest -0.9% decline. Yet this headline figure masks a turbulent internal journey: the market endured a maximum drawdown of 15.0% and experienced its largest single monthly move of 3.1%. The overall flatness resulted from sharp initial declines bleeding into long, grinding lows, followed by tentative recoveries that repeatedly failed to sustain momentum.
This replay places trainees at six decision points, with two flagged as critical inflection moments. The scenario tests whether participants can distinguish between temporary volatility and genuine trend changes, manage risk exposure through a prolonged drawdown, and maintain disciplined reasoning when headlines scream panic or premature optimism. Successfully navigating the 2000s and 2010s housing collapse demands emotional detachment, probabilistic thinking, and the humility to accept that even well-reasoned decisions occur within inherently uncertain historical contexts.
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