US National (Case-Shiller, 2000+) Historical Replay: 2008-12 to 2011-05
Between December 2008 and May 2011, the U.S. national Case-Shiller index slipped 7.8% from 152.54 to 140.69. Replay this 30-month collapse day by day, navigate six decision points, and receive an AI coach review in a fully simulated educational setting.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2008-12 to 2011-05 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 9.7% with a 3.2% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −9.7%
- Max run-up
- +3.2%
- Largest single-month move
- −2.1%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The U.S. housing market entered this replay in December 2008, deep in the wreckage of the subprime mortgage crisis. The Case-Shiller national index had already cratered from its 2006 peak, and the broader economy was shedding jobs at an alarming pace. Over the next 30 months, participants must navigate a market where every monthly bar carried the weight of systemic uncertainty—banks teetering, credit frozen, and millions of homeowners facing foreclosure.
What the data reveals across this stretch is a decline from 152.54 to 140.69, an overall -7.8% move that undersells the underlying turbulence. The maximum drawdown hit 9.7%, while the largest single monthly swing reached 2.1%. Within this 30-bar period lie six decision points, two of them critical junctions where positioning could mean the difference between capital preservation and compounding losses. The market was not falling in a straight line—it churned, bounced, and tested resolve at every turn.
This replay forces participants to confront several timeless challenges. First, process discipline: reacting to headlines rather than price action leads to whipsaw. Second, risk calibration: a 9.7% drawdown is manageable for some portfolios but catastrophic for others. Third, psychology: markets that fall 9.7% often tempt capitulation at the worst moments. Trainees must practice holding to a thesis, adjusting position size, and recognizing when deteriorating fundamentals demand exit—skills that transfer far beyond housing to any market under stress.
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