US National (Case-Shiller, 2000+) Historical Replay: 2009-11 to 2012-04
Replay 30 monthly bars of US national Case-Shiller home prices from 2009-11 to 2012-04, capturing a 9.4% drawdown. Walk through each decision point day by day, face 2 critical inflection moments, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
30 monthly bars · 6 decision points · 2009-11 to 2012-04 · Property
Key facts
Peak-to-trough drawdown of 9.4% with a 3.4% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −9.4%
- Max run-up
- +3.4%
- Largest single-month move
- +1.9%
- Bars
- 30 Monthly bars
- Decision points
- 6
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The setting is the US national housing market through the lens of the Case-Shiller index, spanning November 2009 to April 2012—a period that captured the aftermath of the subprime crisis and the painful path toward market bottoming. This 30-month replay covers 30 monthly bars and confronts participants with the brutal reality of a market caught between falling values and uncertain recovery timelines. Six decision points punctuate this historical stretch, with two rising to critical inflection moments that would test any trader's conviction and risk discipline.
The numbers tell a story of grinding erosion rather than dramatic collapse: closing prices declined from 147.94 to 138.46, representing a -6.4% move over the full period. However, the max drawdown of 9.4% reveals the deeper stress that occurred beneath the surface, while the largest single monthly bar of 1.9% shows how even modest monthly moves compounded into meaningful losses. This was not a single crisis event but a prolonged erosion that demanded sustained conviction to hold positions or difficult decisions about when to reduce exposure.
For decision training, this scenario forces participants to grapple with the psychology of loss in a slow-motion decline—where the absence of dramatic daily moves makes it easy to rationalize holding losing positions. The two critical inflection points become training ground for recognizing when fundamental deterioration warrants action versus when noise should be filtered. Risk management in such environments requires pre-defining drawdown thresholds and sticking to them, rather than being seduced by the gradual nature of the fall. Participants learn that in grinding markets, process discipline often matters more than directional conviction.
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