Cocoa Historical Replay: 2018-11 to 2019-05
Replay 122 daily bars of cocoa from 2018-11 to 2019-05, watching the close climb from 2158 to 2304. You step through 21 decision points—including 7 critical ones—against a 12.2% drawdown backdrop, with simulated capital and AI feedback after each session.
122 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2018-11 to 2019-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 180 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 12.2% and a 18.9% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −12.2%
- Max run-up
- +18.9%
- Duration
- 180 days
- Largest single-day move
- +4.9%
- Bars
- 122 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Cocoa entered the replay window in mid-November 2018, embarking on a six-month journey through a market defined by policy uncertainty and shifting dollar dynamics. Over 122 daily bars, participants trace the commodity's path from 2158 to 2304, confronting the same information flow that traders faced during the late 2010s. This period tested both directional conviction and the ability to endure extended uncertainty without abandoning sound process.
The close climbed from 2158 to 2304, delivering a 6.8% return—but the journey proved far rougher than the endpoint suggests. A maximum drawdown of 12.2% meant that any position holder experienced significant unrealized losses at some stage, while the largest single-bar move of 4.9% underscored the market's capacity for sudden dislocation. Against this volatile backdrop, traders confronted 21 decision points, of which 7 were flagged as critical—moments where the difference between proactive and reactive management could define outcomes.
For decision training, this scenario excels at exposing the gap between knowing a trend direction and managing the emotional toll of living through it. The 12.2% drawdown forces participants to predefine their pain thresholds and position sizing before volatility arrives, not after. The 4.9% single-bar spikes test whether traders will abandon disciplined plans during moments of market stress. With AI feedback delivered after each session, every choice becomes a learning opportunity—whether the lesson concerns entry timing, risk calibration, or simply the psychology of holding through a double-digit drawdown. This replay teaches that surviving volatility with process intact is itself a measurable skill.
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