Cotton Historical Replay: 2018-02 to 2018-08
Replay 128 daily bars of cotton from February to August 2018 and watch the contract climb 9.1% amid a 12.7% drawdown. Step into 22 decision points, choose your path, then receive an AI coach review of every simulated call.
128 daily bars · 22 decision points · 2018-02 to 2018-08 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 183 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 12.7% and a 26.3% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −12.7%
- Max run-up
- +26.3%
- Duration
- 183 days
- Largest single-day move
- +4.7%
- Bars
- 128 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 22
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The scene opens in early 2018 with cotton trading as a soft commodity susceptible to policy shifts. Between February and August, market participants faced the challenge of navigating a 128-bar dataset where policy signals could reverse sentiment overnight. The stakes were clear: the ability to read policy cues, manage drawdowns, and avoid being shaken out by volatility would separate disciplined traders from reactive ones.
What unfolded was a 9.1% climb from 76.45 to 83.41 over approximately six months. However, this ascent was anything but linear—a 12.7% maximum drawdown tested conviction, and a 4.7% single-bar move revealed how quickly positions could be wiped out. The market cycled through optimism and fear, rewarding those who could distinguish temporary disruptions from structural shifts.
The real lesson lies in process over prediction. With 22 decision points and 8 critical junctures where outcomes hinged on the next move, the scenario forces traders to confront their risk tolerance, position sizing, and emotional discipline. A 4.7% single-bar swing demands stop-loss rigor; a 12.7% drawdown tests whether one's thesis can survive temporary adversity. For decision training, the emphasis is on building systematic responses rather than relying on intuition alone.