Coffee Historical Replay: 2017-11 to 2018-05
Replay 122 daily bars of coffee from 2017-11-15 to 2018-05-11 as prices fell -9.1% into a 12.8% drawdown. Step through 21 decision points—including 7 critical ones—day by day, then receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
122 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2017-11 to 2018-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 177 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 12.8% and a 11.3% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −12.8%
- Max run-up
- +11.3%
- Duration
- 177 days
- Largest single-day move
- −3.2%
- Bars
- 122 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Coffee traders entering the final months of 2017 faced a complex macro environment where a weakening US dollar was expected to lift dollar-denominated commodity prices. The period spanning November 2017 through May 2018 placed soft commodities at a crossroads between currency dynamics and supply fundamentals. This replay captures the tension between anticipated inflation pressures and the actual price trajectory that unfolded in the coffee markets.
What actually transpired defied some expectations: over 122 daily bars from 2017-11-15 to 2018-05-11, coffee prices declined from 126.75 to 115.25, a -9.1% move that included a maximum drawdown of 12.8%. The largest single-bar swing reached 3.2%, underscoring the volatility inherent in soft commodities even during trending periods. Participants navigated 21 decision points across this stretch, with 7 deemed critical junctures where positioning and risk management held the greatest consequence.
This replay excels as a training ground for managing a declining market where losses accumulate gradually before testing conviction. The sequence of 21 decision points—7 critical—forces participants to confront the psychological challenge of holding, adjusting, or exiting a losing position. Process discipline matters more than prediction here: managing drawdown risk, sizing positions appropriately, and maintaining clear criteria for cutting losses become the skills under examination. The -9.1% decline serves not as a failure state but as a realistic canvas for practicing defensive decision-making under sustained pressure.