Cocoa Historical Replay: 2016-07 to 2017-01
Cocoa prices plunged 25.5% between July 2016 and January 2017, an authentic commodities crash unfolding across 122 daily bars. Replay this historic drawdown day by day, face 21 decision points, and receive an AI coach review in a simulated educational environment.
122 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2016-07 to 2017-01 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 177 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 31.6% and a 9.7% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −31.6%
- Max run-up
- +9.7%
- Duration
- 177 days
- Largest single-day move
- +4.8%
- Bars
- 122 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The scenario places you in the cocoa futures market during the second half of 2016, a period when soft commodities faced mounting headwinds. Spanning from July 20, 2016 to January 13, 2017, this 122-day stretch captures a significant downtrend in a market known for volatility. Participants must navigate deteriorating conditions while managing exposure in an asset class that can move sharply on supply and demand imbalances.
Cocoa prices fell from 2969 to 2213 over this period, representing a -25.5% decline. The maximum drawdown reached 31.6%, with the largest single-bar move hitting 4.8%. Traders faced 21 decision points across this drawdown, of which 7 were marked as critical, demanding careful evaluation of position management under sustained pressure.
This replay sharpens decision training by confronting participants with the psychological weight of a prolonged decline. Managing risk through a -25.5% move requires disciplined position sizing and a clear process for distinguishing temporary weakness from structural breakdown. The scenario teaches that navigating volatility in the 2010s soft commodities space demands both analytical rigor and emotional composure when facing extended drawdowns.
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