Coffee Historical Replay: 2014-11 to 2015-05
Replay 122 days of a historic coffee crash as the price plunged from 187.5 to 134.4. Step through each session, navigate 21 decision points with seven critical, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
122 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2014-11 to 2015-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 177 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 36.2% and a 15.8% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −36.2%
- Max run-up
- +15.8%
- Duration
- 177 days
- Largest single-day move
- +6.7%
- Bars
- 122 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The coffee market entering late 2014 faced mounting pressures as oversupply concerns and weakening demand signals set the stage for a significant repricing. Over the 122 trading days from November 17, 2014 to May 13, 2015, participants in this replay navigate what would become one of the decade's most consequential commodity declines. The scenario captures the tension between fundamentals and momentum, with seven critical decision points testing traders' ability to adapt to an established downtrend.
The numbers tell a stark story: prices collapsed from 187.5 to 134.4, representing a 28.3% decline over the period. The maximum drawdown reached 36.2%, meaning even those who entered with protective stops faced substantial unrealized losses at peak adversity. Perhaps most instructive for training purposes, the largest single-bar move of 6.7% demonstrates how volatile commodity crashes can be, with sharp intraday reversals capable of testing discipline and risk management frameworks.
This replay serves as a powerful laboratory for developing disciplined decision-making under sustained pressure. Participants must confront the psychological challenge of holding or adding to short positions as prices continue falling, while simultaneously managing the risk of violent bear market rallies. The seven critical junctures embedded throughout the scenario force engagement with questions of position sizing, stop-loss placement, and the distinction between fundamental conviction and stubbornness. Success in this environment requires neither prediction of the crash's exact bottom nor perfect timing, but rather a repeatable process that accepts small losses while avoiding the catastrophic drawdowns that transform temporary setbacks into permanent capital impairment.