Cotton Historical Replay: 2004-05 to 2004-08
Replay the 2004 cotton crash as prices fell 29.6% in just 64 trading days, with drawdowns reaching 33.1%. You make each daily call, navigate 11 decision points, and receive AI coach feedback in this simulated training environment.
64 daily bars · 11 decision points · 2004-05 to 2004-08 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 92 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 33.1% and a 8.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −33.1%
- Max run-up
- +8.5%
- Duration
- 92 days
- Largest single-day move
- +6.6%
- Bars
- 64 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In the spring of 2004, cotton markets were navigating one of the early episodes of the 2000s commodity supercycle. This replay places you at the center of a high-stakes soft commodity environment where supply-demand imbalances, weather concerns, and macroeconomic shifts converged. The 2004-05 to 2004-08 window represents a critical inflection period that tested the conviction of every market participant.
Over just 64 trading days—from May 6 to August 6, 2004—cotton prices collapsed from 63.75 to 44.9, a decline of 29.6%. The maximum drawdown reached 33.1%, while the largest single trading day saw a move of 6.6%. Eleven decision points were embedded throughout this period, four of them critical junctures where directional bias and position management became existential questions.
This scenario strips away hindsight to test your process under sustained pressure. Navigating a 33.1% drawdown while managing a volatile soft commodity demands disciplined risk calibration and psychological resilience. The 6.6% single-bar swings punish reactive thinking, while the 11 decision points reward those who balance conviction with flexibility. History shows that surviving such environments is less about predicting the bottom and more about maintaining the decision-making framework that keeps you in the game.
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