2004 Archive Volume
Eleven commodity replays, one summer. The 2004 boom tested conviction, position sizing, and the gap between directional calls and surviving drawdowns.
8 files in this volume
The year in numbers
- 188
- Replayable scenarios
This year's files
- 012004-10: The Dollar Reversal — Fed Tightening and 37 Currency Markets
The Federal Reserve's mid-2004 tightening cycle triggered a broad dollar reversal, reshaping forex markets across G10 and emerging economies through April 2005.
Read the file → - 02November 2004–May 2005: The Commodities Reflation Boom and Its Decision Training Legacy
Commodities across energy, agriculture, and metals diverged sharply during the 2000s reflation wave, rewarding directional conviction while punishing process discipline with drawdowns up to 28.6%.
Read the file → - 03Summer 2004: The Commodity Supercycle's First Stress Test
Eleven commodity replays, one summer. The 2004 boom tested conviction, position sizing, and the gap between directional calls and surviving drawdowns.
Read the file → - 042004 Commodity Supercycle: When the Supercycle Label Masked a Grains Massacre
In 2004, commodity markets entered a boom that proved deeply uneven—agricultural commodities suffered drawdowns far exceeding their net losses, while energy and precious metals told different stories.
Read the file → - 052004–2005: Reading the World's Markets in Parallel
A year-end 2004 pivot sent markets on sharply divergent paths—China's reform shock, Indonesia's commodity surge, and a mixed global picture that tested every trading style.
Read the file → - 062004: US Housing Bubble — The Low-Volatility Illusion
17 US housing replays, 2004–2011: low-volatility boom masked fragility; subprime expansion ended in crisis.
Read the file → - 07June 2004: The U.S. Housing Bubble's Final Acceleration — When Low Volatility Became a Warning Signal
In mid-2004, U.S. housing entered its last surge phase. Case-Shiller indices climbed without meaningful correction, lulling participants before the 2008 reckoning.
Read the file → - 082004-07-21: The USD/BRL Reversal — Brazil's Real and the Carry Trade Unwind
Brazilian real's 29% appreciation from July 2004 to August 2006 exposed the fragility of carry-funded EM positions when global liquidity conditions shift.
Read the file →