2003 Archive Volume
In 2003, Middle East tensions ignited a surge across US energy futures, with heating oil, natural gas and WTI crude climbing from November through May 2004, natural gas outpacing at roughly 35%. All three markets recorded 122 daily bars of replay data, highlighting a synchronized seasonal‑geopolitical pattern that lasted about six months. The episode underscores the need for decision‑training models to integrate geopolitical risk with seasonal demand signals and to monitor cross‑market co‑movements for early warning.
4 files in this volume
The year in numbers
- 50
- Replayable scenarios
This year's files
- 012003–2004 US Energy Markets: Three Markets, One Seasonal-Geopolitical Signal
Heating oil, natural gas, and WTI crude oil surged from November 2003 through May 2004 as winter demand met Middle East supply fears. Natural gas led at 35%.
Read the file → - 022003–2005: The Low-Volatility Paradox — How Zero Drawdowns Rewired American Housing Risk
Thirty months of unbroken US housing appreciation, with max drawdowns near zero across thirteen markets, created a risk calculus that unraveled only years later.
Read the file → - 03October 2003: Five Nations, One Property Boom, Divergent Fates
A single month saw five national property indices open in unison—only to split wildly over the next 30 months. Canada surged 57.5%; the UK barely budged. The divergence began in plain sight.
Read the file → - 042003: The Zero-Drawdown Housing Market and the Psychology of Stability
June 2003: the Fed had cut rates, housing was climbing, and American cities entered a 30-month run with nearly zero drawdowns. What could go wrong?
Read the file →