Rough Rice Historical Replay: 2024-10 to 2025-01
Replay rough rice from October 2024 through January 2025, a 62-bar span where prices slipped from 15.06 to 14.03 with an 11.0% drawdown. Step through each trading day, tackle 11 decision points, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
62 daily bars · 11 decision points · 2024-10 to 2025-01 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 90 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 11.0% and a 6.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −11.0%
- Max run-up
- +6.5%
- Duration
- 90 days
- Largest single-day move
- +3.0%
- Bars
- 62 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Rough rice, a niche but consequential grain contract, set the stage for a focused replay experience spanning the final quarter of 2024. The US commodities market provided the backdrop as traders confronted 62 daily bars from October 10 through early January 2025, a period marked by post-election policy uncertainty and its ripple effects across agricultural markets. Eleven decision points awaited participants, four of them flagged as critical junctures where directional conviction and risk management would be tested simultaneously.
The closing price slipped from 15.06 to 14.03, representing a -6.8% decline over the full window. The journey was anything but linear: a maximum drawdown of 11.0% tested positions at their low points, while the largest single daily move of 3.0% signaled that sharp reversals could emerge without warning. These figures frame a market that drifted lower but with enough intra-day turbulence to punish complacency and reward disciplined adherence to process.
For decision training, this replay distills several hard lessons. First, position sizing matters enormously when drawdowns can reach double digits. Second, the presence of four critical decision points underscores that not every moment demands action, but the ones that do demand preparation. Third, the relatively modest daily volatility of 3.0% serves as a reminder that grains can grind against you slowly, eroding capital through accumulation rather than catastrophe. Psychological resilience—the ability to distinguish noise from signal—becomes the ultimate edge in navigating this environment historically.
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