Hot-rolled Coil Historical Replay: 2023-06 to 2023-09
Replay 64 daily bars of a CN ferrous boom from June to September 2023, where hot-rolled coil drifted from 3765 to 3906. Walk through each decision point, make calls on historical tape, and receive an AI coach review of your reasoning in this simulated training environment.
64 daily bars · 11 decision points · 2023-06 to 2023-09 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 91 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 7.4% and a 10.6% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −7.4%
- Max run-up
- +10.6%
- Duration
- 91 days
- Largest single-day move
- −2.7%
- Bars
- 64 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The scenario immerses traders in China's hot-rolled coil market during the summer of 2023, a period when expectations around the nation's economic recovery hung in delicate balance. Over 64 trading days spanning June 6 to September 5, 2023, market participants confronted a ferrous complex caught between stimulus hopes and persistent demand headwinds. The stakes were clear: navigate macroeconomic uncertainty and supply dynamics while managing the psychological pressure of a market searching for clear direction.
Hot-rolled coil drifted from 3765 to 3906, delivering a modest 3.7% return that concealed meaningful intraday turbulence. The maximum drawdown reached 7.4%, while the largest single-bar move hit 2.7%, reminding participants that quiet headlines often mask volatile underlying price action. Across these 64 bars, 11 decision points emerged, with 4 designated as critical moments where directional conviction was tested.
This replay teaches that modest headline returns can coexist with significant risk exposure, demanding strict adherence to drawdown limits regardless of apparent trend direction. The abundance of decision points cultivates discipline in distinguishing high-conviction entries from noise, while the psychology of sitting through a 7.4% decline tests emotional resilience even in a market that ultimately closed higher. Decision training here focuses on process consistency over outcome prediction, reinforcing that survival through volatility precedes any capture of trend.