Rebar Historical Replay: 2021-09 to 2022-01
Replay the 2021-09 to 2022-01 rebar session as Chinese steel prices fell 20.6% from 5657 to 4492 across 68 daily bars. Step through every market day, face 12 decision points with 4 critical junctures, and receive an AI coach review of each simulated choice.
68 daily bars · 12 decision points · 2021-09 to 2022-01 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 103 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 29.3% and a 10.4% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −29.3%
- Max run-up
- +10.4%
- Duration
- 103 days
- Largest single-day move
- −8.2%
- Bars
- 68 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 12
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The replay immerses participants in Chinese steel markets during the final quarter of 2021, when the Federal Reserve began signaling a hawkish policy shift and the US dollar strengthened against major currencies. Rebar, a critical input for infrastructure and construction, faced dual pressure from slowing domestic demand and rising input costs. This historical window tests a trader's ability to manage a sustained downtrend while maintaining disciplined risk controls across 68 trading days. The session presents 12 decision points, including 4 critical junctures where directional conviction and position sizing become decisive factors.
The data reveals a stark decline: rebar prices fell from 5657 to 4492, a -20.6% contraction over the 2021-09-29 to 2022-01-10 period. The maximum drawdown reached 29.3%, meaning peak-to-trough losses substantially exceeded the headline decline. The largest single-bar move of 8.2% underscores the volatility spikes that can materialize during trending markets, challenging any assumption of smooth price progression. These numbers frame a demanding environment where losses can compound quickly and momentum shifts can catch even careful participants off guard.
For decision training, the session highlights three core dimensions. Process discipline demands that participants track positions daily and avoid averaging into losing trades during extended drawdowns. Risk management requires sizing positions so that a 29.3% max drawdown does not breach account-level boundaries or trigger forced exits. Psychology forces confrontation with the emotional weight of watching a -20.6% decline unfold in real time, testing whether participants can distinguish temporary weakness from structural breakdown. Together, these elements make the replay a rigorous probe of the skills that separate disciplined practitioners from reactive ones.
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