Rebar Historical Replay: 2019-11 to 2020-05
Replay 116 daily bars of US ferrous markets from 2019-11-20 to 2020-05-14, navigating a 14.3% drawdown with 20 decision points. Work through each authentic trading day, face 7 critical choices, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated decisions.
116 daily bars · 20 decision points · 2019-11 to 2020-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 176 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 14.3% and a 10.4% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −14.3%
- Max run-up
- +10.4%
- Duration
- 176 days
- Largest single-day move
- −7.6%
- Bars
- 116 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 20
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
This session captures a pivotal period straddling two decades—late 2019 into the first half of 2020—when global industrial demand faced an unprecedented shock wave. The US ferrous market, deeply intertwined with construction activity, becomes the lens through which participants confront a rapidly deteriorating demand environment and cascading supply disruptions. With uncertainty escalating daily, every trading decision carries amplified weight and consequence.
The final tally shows a -6.3% decline from 3676 to 3445, yet this headline figure masks the true volatility participants endured. The maximum drawdown of 14.3% reveals sustained pressure that tested every position, while the largest single session move of 7.6% demonstrates the market's capacity for sudden, violent shifts. Over 116 trading days, participants faced 20 distinct decision points, with 7 classified as critical moments where strategic choices could determine survival or significant loss. This was not a single collapse but a grinding test of risk discipline.
Three lessons crystallize from this replay. Process discipline matters more than directional conviction when volatility spikes beyond normal ranges. Understanding maximum drawdown tolerance before positions are opened prevents forced decisions at the worst moments. Psychological resilience—the ability to distinguish signal from noise during a 7.6% single-bar move—separates those who learn from history from those who repeat it. This replay serves as a laboratory for building that resilience without risking real capital.
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