Coke Historical Replay: 2019-11 to 2020-05
Replay 116 daily bars of US ferrous-coke history from Nov 2019 to May 2020, absorbing a steep 17.3% drawdown through the early pandemic. Walk decision-by-decision, weigh 20 branching prompts (7 critical), and receive an AI coach review of each simulated choice.
116 daily bars · 20 decision points · 2019-11 to 2020-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 176 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 17.3% and a 11.3% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −17.3%
- Max run-up
- +11.3%
- Duration
- 176 days
- Largest single-day move
- −9.6%
- Bars
- 116 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 20
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The scenario recreates US ferrous-coke markets during a historically volatile period. From November 2019 to May 2020, traders faced an unprecedented shock as the early pandemic reshaped global commodity flows. The 116 daily bars capture the tension between established seasonal patterns and sudden systemic uncertainty—where every decision carried amplified consequences. This was a test of discipline under conditions that defied conventional forecasting.
The period delivered a -2.2% net decline (1814 to 1774.5) but this modest headline figure conceals violent internal turbulence. The market endured a maximum drawdown of 17.3%, with single-bar moves reaching 9.6%. Such spikes shattered positions built on calm-market assumptions. Across the era, participants confronted 20 decision points, including 7 critical junctures where directional conviction was tested against rapidly shifting sentiment.
This replay teaches that survival depends not on predicting outcomes but on process under pressure. The 17.3% drawdown forces reflection on position sizing and stop discipline. The 9.6% single-bar episodes expose the gap between theoretical risk models and real psychological tolerance. Participants learn to distinguish between signal and noise, to manage fear without being controlled by it, and to understand that historical context provides structure but never certainty. The value lies in building decision habits that hold when conditions deteriorate beyond expectations.
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