Hot-rolled Coil Historical Replay: 2019-11 to 2020-05
Step into a 116-day hot-rolled coil replay from 2019-11-20 to 2020-05-14, navigating 20 decision points including 7 critical ones amid pandemic-driven volatility with a 7.8% single-bar swing. You replay the market day by day, weigh each decision point, and receive an AI coach review — simulated capital, educational only.
116 daily bars · 20 decision points · 2019-11 to 2020-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 176 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 20.7% and a 11.5% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −20.7%
- Max run-up
- +11.5%
- Duration
- 176 days
- Largest single-day move
- −7.8%
- Bars
- 116 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 20
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Hot-rolled coil markets entered a period of profound uncertainty from late 2019, as global industrial demand faced mounting headwinds and the early contours of what would become a pandemic began reshaping economic expectations. This 116-day replay spans November 20, 2019 to May 14, 2020, placing traders at the intersection of the 2010s and 2020s decades where established supply chains met unprecedented disruption. Participants must navigate 20 decision points, including 7 critical junctures that demand clear risk assessment under rapidly evolving conditions.
The market witnessed a sharp contraction, with prices declining from 3529 to 3344, representing a modest -5.2% overall loss. However, this headline figure masks significant underlying turbulence, as the maximum drawdown reached 20.7% and extreme volatility was evident in single-day price swings of 7.8%. The substantial gap between total decline and peak-to-trough loss highlights the treacherous trading landscape, where substantial interim losses tested risk management strategies.
This replay emphasizes that surviving volatile markets requires more than directional conviction. The 20 decision points serve as a laboratory for testing position sizing, stop-loss discipline, and psychological resilience when facing sudden dislocations. The 7 critical moments strip away comfort and force honest evaluation of one's process. Educational replays like this one do not promise profits but rather offer a structured environment to build the habits that distinguish seasoned decision-makers from reactive ones.
Featured in the archive