Hot-rolled Coil Historical Replay: 2018-06 to 2018-09
Replay the opening of the 2018 trade war through 68 daily bars of authentic hot-rolled coil action, where an 8.6% drawdown tested every operator. Step into 12 decision points, receive an AI coach review, and sharpen your instincts with simulated capital only.
68 daily bars · 12 decision points · 2018-06 to 2018-09 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 96 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 8.6% and a 13.6% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −8.6%
- Max run-up
- +13.6%
- Duration
- 96 days
- Largest single-day move
- −4.7%
- Bars
- 68 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 12
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Steel markets faced a crucible in the summer of 2018. The US-China trade war was just beginning to escalate, and hot-rolled coil—a benchmark steel product—was caught in the crossfire of tariffs, rhetoric, and market uncertainty. From June 21 through late September, 68 daily bars of authentic price action captured a market struggling to price in geopolitical risk, shifting demand expectations, and the psychological toll of a structural shift in global trade relationships. Every participant faced the question: how do you navigate a market where fundamentals are being rewritten by political decision?
What the data reveals is a study in measured resilience. Prices moved from 3872 to 3952, a modest 2.1% net gain over the period—yet this headline number obscures the turmoil beneath. An 8.6% drawdown tested every participant's conviction, while the largest single-bar move of 4.7% demanded split-second risk management. The market did not trend cleanly; it oscillated, corrected, and regrouped, rewarding those who could distinguish noise from signal.
The 12 decision points embedded in this replay are designed to sharpen exactly the skills this period demands. Four of them represent critical junctures where the margin between disciplined execution and emotional reaction was razor-thin. This historical window teaches that process matters more than prediction, that managing drawdown psychology separates enduring traders from those who fold under pressure, and that volatility itself can be a classroom when approached with the right mindset.