Hot-rolled Coil Historical Replay: 2018-05 to 2018-08
Replay 62 daily bars of US hot-rolled coil from May 2018 as prices climbed 14.0% into the early trade-war shock. Work through 11 decision points with four marked critical, then receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
62 daily bars · 11 decision points · 2018-05 to 2018-08 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 88 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 4.4% and a 14.3% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −4.4%
- Max run-up
- +14.3%
- Duration
- 88 days
- Largest single-day move
- −3.0%
- Bars
- 62 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In the spring of 2018, the US hot-rolled coil market entered a period of intense uncertainty as trade-war rhetoric between Washington and Beijing escalated from threats to actual tariffs. This replay covers 62 daily bars from May 10 to August 6, placing traders inside a market where industrial metal prices were caught between supply dynamics and the shock of new protectionist measures. The stakes were straightforward: correctly reading sentiment shifts and position sizing would separate disciplined participants from those caught offside.
Prices rose 14.0% over the period, climbing from 3716 to 4238, as early tariff announcements initially sparked restocking demand before introducing volatility. The market recorded a maximum drawdown of 4.4% and a largest single-bar move of 3.0%, creating moments where intraday swings tested conviction. Participants faced 11 decision points, four of which were flagged as critical, requiring deliberate choices about entry, exit, and scaling in an environment where headlines could reverse sentiment within hours.
This replay is most valuable as a stress test for process discipline. The 4.4% drawdown reminds us that even favorable trends punish poor risk management, while the 3.0% single-bar spike tests emotional control under sudden price pressure. Navigating four critical nodes without letting fear or greed override a systematic approach is the core educational challenge. Participants learn that surviving a trade-war shock requires pre-defined rules, not improvisation.