Heating Oil Historical Replay: 2022-11 to 2023-03
Replay an 82-day heating oil window from 2022-11-01 to 2023-03-01 where the close fell 20.7% to 2.87. You step through each daily bar, face 15 decision points including 5 critical ones, and receive an AI coach review of your choices in a simulated, educational environment.
82 daily bars · 15 decision points · 2022-11 to 2023-03 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 120 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 30.7% and a 27.7% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −30.7%
- Max run-up
- +27.7%
- Duration
- 120 days
- Largest single-day move
- −8.0%
- Bars
- 82 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 15
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In late 2022, European energy markets navigated extraordinary uncertainty as the continent struggled with supply disruptions and geopolitical tensions. Heating oil, a vital energy source for homes and businesses across the region, became a focal point for traders facing extreme price swings. The four-month window from November 2022 through March 2023 captured a period when seasonal demand patterns shifted dramatically while underlying supply concerns lingered. This replay places participants in the position of traders who had to make critical decisions amid conflicting signals about supply, demand, and policy responses.
The market ultimately moved from 3.62 to 2.87, representing a 20.7% decline over the 82-day period. What made this period particularly challenging was not just the directional move but the journey: the market experienced a maximum drawdown of 30.7% and the largest single-bar swing reached 8.0%. These figures illustrate that simply identifying the eventual direction was insufficient—surviving the intermediate turbulence required robust risk management and emotional discipline.
This replay offers valuable lessons in managing positions through volatile markets. The 15 decision points, including 5 critical junctures, test a trader's ability to maintain conviction while adapting to changing conditions. Understanding how to size positions appropriately, set stop-loss levels, and manage psychological responses to drawdowns separates effective decision-makers from those who capitulate prematurely. The historical context reminds us that even correct market directional calls can result in significant losses if risk management and emotional control are neglected.