Heating Oil Historical Replay: 2018-11 to 2019-05
Replay 122 daily bars of heating oil from November 2018 through May 2019, capturing a 21.0% drawdown and a 4.8% single-session swing. Walk through 21 decision points, including 7 critical ones, with an AI coach reviewing every choice you make on simulated capital.
122 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2018-11 to 2019-05 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 180 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 21.0% and a 27.7% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −21.0%
- Max run-up
- +27.7%
- Duration
- 180 days
- Largest single-day move
- −4.8%
- Bars
- 122 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Heating oil entered the autumn of 2018 at a crossroads between seasonal demand and macro headwinds. The 2018-11 to 2019-05 window captured a commodity caught between a strengthening dollar and the Federal Reserve's evolving stance. Participants entering this replay faced a market where policy signals from Washington could swing prices sharply, demanding disciplined analysis over impulse.
Over 122 daily bars, heating oil closed the period at 2.04 from an opening near 2.1, a modest net decline of -2.9%. Beneath that flat headline lay a turbulent journey: the market suffered a maximum drawdown of 21.0% and recorded a single-session swing of 4.8%. Navigating 21 decision points—including 7 critical moments testing conviction and timing—separated those who managed volatility from those who were overwhelmed by it.
This replay trains traders to respect the gap between perception and reality in commodity markets. A 4.8% single-bar move can trigger emotional responses that derail a sound plan; a 21.0% drawdown tests whether position sizing and risk limits actually hold under pressure. The 7 critical decision points become case studies in staying process-driven when policy noise creates false certainty. Mastering this scenario means building the habits that keep risk discipline intact when the market is anything but calm.
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