Coffee Historical Replay: 2014-10 to 2015-04
Replay the coffee market from October 2014 to April 2015 as prices plunged 38.4% in a brutal softs downturn. Step through 122 daily bars, weigh 21 decision points, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated choices.
122 daily bars · 21 decision points · 2014-10 to 2015-04 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 179 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 41.8% and a 15.8% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −41.8%
- Max run-up
- +15.8%
- Duration
- 179 days
- Largest single-day move
- +6.7%
- Bars
- 122 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 21
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
Coffee traders entering the final quarter of 2014 faced a market in transition. Soft commodities were coming under sustained pressure as global supply dynamics shifted, and arabica coffee was no exception. This replay spans 122 daily bars from October 16, 2014 through April 13, 2015, placing participants directly inside a commodity downturn that would test every aspect of their trading process. With 21 decision points to navigate and 7 designated as critical, the scenario recreates the pressure of a live market unwinding in real time.
The numbers tell the story plainly: prices fell from 217.1 to 133.75, a decline of -38.4% over the six-month window. The maximum drawdown reached 41.8%, meaning any participant caught on the wrong side endured losses that far exceeded the headline percentage move. The largest single-bar swing of 6.7% demonstrates that volatility was not concentrated in a single collapse but distributed across multiple sharp reversals, creating repeated traps for those relying on simple trend-following logic.
For decision training, this scenario excels at exposing process gaps. A -38.4% drawdown requires disciplined risk management to survive without catastrophic impairment. The recurring 6.7% single-bar moves test whether participants can maintain composure when markets gap or accelerate against positions. Seven critical decision points serve as stress tests for pre-commitment strategies, position sizing discipline, and the psychological resilience needed to act methodically rather than reactively when capital is eroding rapidly. Mastering this replay builds the habits that separate disciplined commodity traders from those who are merely spectators to volatility.