Cocoa Historical Replay: 2018-05 to 2018-08
Cocoa slid 27.0% from May to August 2018 in a brutal soft-commodity crash replay. Step through 62 daily bars, confront 4 critical decision points, and receive an AI coach review of your simulated capital choices.
62 daily bars · 11 decision points · 2018-05 to 2018-08 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 89 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 27.0% and a 12.9% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −27.0%
- Max run-up
- +12.9%
- Duration
- 89 days
- Largest single-day move
- +5.2%
- Bars
- 62 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 11
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
The soft-commodity market in the 2010s faced a pivotal moment when cocoa prices entered a dramatic unraveling. From May 9 to August 6, 2018—spanning 62 trading days—the market shifted from a close of 2774 to a close of 2122, a decline that tested the resolve of every market participant. This was not a gentle correction but a sustained crash that would define the trading environment for the period.
The numbers tell a stark story: a total decline of -23.5% from peak to trough, a maximum drawdown of 27.0%, and a largest single-bar move of 5.2%. With 11 decision points embedded across the replay—4 deemed critical—participants were forced to confront the crash in real time. The volatility was relentless, with daily swings that punished inattentive risk management and rewarded those who had prepared for the worst.
This replay teaches that process matters more than prediction. The crash offered no clear safe harbor, but disciplined position sizing and predetermined exit rules could have preserved capital through the worst stretches. Participants confronted the psychological challenge of staying rational when the market offered no relief—watching a -23.5% decline while resisting the urge to average down or abandon discipline entirely. The 4 critical decision points forced choices that separated those who managed risk systematically from those who reacted emotionally, making this a powerful case study in how psychology and process intersect under sustained pressure.