Cotton Historical Replay: 2011-02 to 2011-08
Cotton prices plunged 44.7% over six months in 2011, a brutal boom-to-bust arc every commodity student should witness. Replay each of the 126 daily bars, face 22 decision points, and receive an AI coach review in this simulated training environment.
126 daily bars · 22 decision points · 2011-02 to 2011-08 · Commodities
Key facts
This window spans 181 days with a peak-to-trough drawdown of 54.9% and a 18.7% run-up.
- Max drawdown
- −54.9%
- Max run-up
- +18.7%
- Duration
- 181 days
- Largest single-day move
- −14.4%
- Bars
- 126 Daily bars
- Decision points
- 22
Every figure above is computed programmatically from this replay’s own candle series — no editorial input, no LLM. Methodology: Methodology
The market advances day by day. You only see candles up to the current day — as if you were really there.
At key decision points choose Buy / Trim / Exit / Hold. Each decision advances the timeline by one day.
After settlement you get a six-dimension score and an AI coach review. Your result enters the scenario leaderboard.
Event Replay
What happened — and what it teaches
In early 2011, cotton was one of the most volatile soft commodities in the global markets. The period from February to August 2011 presented traders and analysts with a textbook case of a classic commodity boom-to-bust cycle. Over six months, every participant in the cotton market faced the question of how to navigate an extraordinary price collapse that would test their risk management and decision-making processes.
The numbers tell a stark story. Cotton prices fell 44.7% from 190.02 to 105.03 over just 126 trading days. The maximum drawdown reached 54.9%, meaning any investor who bought near the peak endured losses that would have forced out most margin accounts. The largest single-day move of 14.4% highlights the extreme intraday volatility that characterized this decline. Trainees replaying this scenario will face 22 decision points, with 8 critical moments where positioning choices could mean the difference between survival and catastrophic loss.
This replay is a masterclass in risk psychology. The cotton collapse teaches that even popular consensus can reverse violently, and that position sizing must account for scenarios far beyond historical norms. For decision training, the 126 daily bars offer a structured environment to practice discipline under pressure, testing whether trainees can update their views and manage risk when the market delivers moves of 14.4% in a single session. The goal is not to predict the next crash but to build the process and emotional resilience that allows a trader to stay rational when everyone else is panicking.